Amidst Global Trade Uncertainty, HSBC Finds that North American Businesses Look to Neighbours for Growth

Preliminary USMCA Deal Likely to Support Regional Growth Opportunities Identified by Businesses in the US, Mexico and Canada

NEW YORK, MEXICO CITY and TORONTO, Nov. 1, 2018 /CNW/ - Despite concerns about protectionist measures, businesses in the United States, Mexico and Canada expressed a high degree of confidence about international trade opportunities, according to HSBC's latest Navigator Survey. Results show that firms in North America exhibited more interest in doing business within the region, likely due to ongoing uncertainty regarding trade negotiations happening around the globe.

For example, firms in all three countries ranked their regional partners as their top two markets for growth:

• US firms identified Canada (28%) and Mexico (13%) as their top markets for growth with an eight percentage point increase in interest for Canada
• Mexican firms are looking to the US (45%) and Canada (34%) for growth as evidenced by strong increases in interest for both markets
• Canadian firms see growth opportunities in the US (46%) and Mexico (15%) with a 10 percentage point increase in interest for the US

Although fielded before the preliminary framework of the rebranded United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), survey data show that in both the US and Canada, nearly half (46%) of businesses felt that NAFTA will help their business in the next three years. Businesses in Mexico were most optimistic with 58% of those surveyed reporting it will help their business in the next three years. 

"Intra-regional trade is still international trade, and global trading opportunities supply the greatest gains," said Dan Leslie,  Head of Client Coverage at HSBC Bank Canada. "The great majority of consumers and capital lie outside Canada's borders, so taking advantage of global markets will always represent the greatest opportunity for ambitious companies that want to grow their businesses."

Pivoting to intra-regional rather than inter-regional trading opportunities is also observed in other regions. European companies citing Asian markets dropped from 26% in the first quarter to 13% now, North American firms citing Asia fell from 33% to 15%, and Asian companies citing North America slipped from 29% to 21%. At the same time, more Asia-Pacific companies are looking at China specifically as a future growth market, a four percentage point increase to 16%. 

Key Findings for Companies in the US

• Nearly four out of five (79%) are confident that their company will succeed in the current international trade environment based on global economic growth (31%), strong domestic growth (26%) and interest rates (25%)
• Almost two-thirds (60%) of US companies with a negative outlook cite tariffs as the key reason
• US trade uncertainty with China is a second key concern for more than a third (36%) of US companies
• More than two thirds (69%) of US businesses feel that governments are becoming more protective of their domestic businesses, a nine percentage point increase since 2017, higher than the global average of 63%

Key Findings for Companies in Mexico 

• The vast majority of respondents (90%) are confident about their company's future in the international trade environment due to consumer confidence (43%), buyer/supplier relationships (33%) and new technologies (30%) 
• Looking ahead, a third of Mexican goods exporters are planning to diversify their markets – almost 10 percentage points more than the global average
• Plans for internationalization remain a key focus for company direction, particularly for those with less than 50% of their business abroad

Key Findings for Companies in Canada

• More Canadian firms expect US-China trade uncertainty to have a positive near-term impact on their business (30%) than expect a negative effect (25%)
• Over two-thirds (68%) of Canadian firms believe governments in their key trading partners are becoming more protective of domestic businesses - around five percentage points higher than the global average (63%)
• Data is one key enabler of business strategies with just under three-quarters (72%) of Canadian firms are using data to optimize performance. Operational and transactional data (each used by 47% of firms) were the most common type of data sets employed by businesses. While customer personal data was the next most popular type of data (used by 46% of firms), data privacy was cited as both a key risk and opportunity for Canadian businesses
• Many Canadian firms also intend to invest in developing key skills among their workforce and productivity growth, perhaps in light of historically low unemployment and a tight labour market

Note to editors:

HSBC Navigator: Now, next and how for business
HSBC's Navigator report comprises a global survey gauging business sentiment and expectations on trade activity and business growth from 8,650 decision-makers in 34 markets. Research was conducted by Kantar TNS for HSBC between August and September 2018.

HSBC's Navigator helps businesses capitalise on new opportunities and make informed decisions for the future by understanding the outlook for international trade.

The full report can be accessed here: https://www.business.hsbc.com/trade-navigator

HSBC Commercial Banking
For over 150 years we have been where the growth is, connecting customers to opportunities. Today, HSBC Commercial Banking serves around 1.7 million customers across 53 markets, ranging from small enterprises focused primarily on their home markets through to corporates operating across borders. Whether it is working capital, term loans, trade finance or payments and cash management solutions, we provide the tools and expertise that businesses need to thrive. As the cornerstone of the HSBC Group, we give businesses access to a geographic network covering more than 90% of global trade and capital flows.

For more information visit: www.hsbc.com/about-hsbc/structure-and-network/commercial-banking.

About HSBC Bank Canada
HSBC Bank Canada, a subsidiary of HSBC Holdings plc, is the leading international bank in the country. We help companies and individuals across Canada to do business and manage their finances internationally through three global business lines: Commercial Banking, Global Banking and Markets, and Retail Banking and Wealth Management. The HSBC Group is one of the world's largest banking and financial services groups with assets of US$2,603bn at 30 September 2018. Linked by advanced technology, the HSBC Group serves customers worldwide from around 3,800 offices in 66 countries and territories in Europe, Asia, North and Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa.

SOURCE HSBC Bank Canada

Matt Ward (US), 212 525 1931, [email protected]; Lyssette Bravo (Mexico), 52 55 5721 2888, [email protected]; Caroline Creighton (Canada), 416 868 8282, [email protected]

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