Canadian Housing Starts Trend Decreases in September

Logo: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

OTTAWA, Oct. 9, 2018 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 207,768 units in September 2018, compared to 213,966 units in August 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"The national trend in housing starts stood at a 19-month low in September, following declines in four of the last five months," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "The slowdown in the pace of new residential construction activity in recent months is a result of both lower single-detached and multi-starts activity and brings new residential construction closer to its long run average from the elevated levels registered in 2017."

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
Housing starts in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) trended lower in September 2018 as fewer projects in both the single-detached and multi-family sectors got underway. Construction activity for the month was concentrated in Surrey, which accounted for one quarter of all starts. Demand for housing from residents remains strong and has resulted in the pace of new home construction in the Vancouver CMA so far in 2018 equaling the level recorded during the first nine months of 2017.

Kelowna
The trend measure for housing starts in the Kelowna CMA moderated in the month of September as a result of a pullback in new construction activity in both the single-detached and multi-unit segments. In the first nine months of 2018, while new construction activity has declined relative to the record pace of housing starts seen in the same period of 2017, it remains significantly above the 10-year average.

Saskatoon
The trend measure of total housing starts increased in September after both single-detached and multi-family starts trended higher. However, overall new home construction in the Saskatoon CMA declined by 17% through September from a year ago reflecting lower single-detached starts. 

Winnipeg
Total housing starts in Winnipeg continued to trend higher in September. A number of new condominium projects were started this month. After nine months, multi-family starts are 3% above the level of last year at this time. However, total housing starts remain 5% below last year's production as rising inventories of single-detached units have slowed activity in this segment of the market.

Toronto
Total housing starts trended higher in September, as the decline in the single-detached starts trend was more than offset by rising multi-unit starts. Multi-unit starts were strong across unit types, led by semi-detached units saw the most starts for the month of September since 2004. The relative affordability of these higher-density units continues to fuel their demand.

St. Catharines-Niagara
For the first time in four months, St. Catharines-Niagara CMA housing starts trended higher, mainly due to the apartment sector. New single-detached construction continued to slow, reaching the lowest monthly level in seven years. A more balanced resale market and higher mortgage borrowing costs have dampened housing demand particularly for relatively expensive single-detached homes.

Brantford
In Brantford, single-detached starts slowed for the first month since January. As a result the pace of overall starts in September also slowed considerably, since most new homes in Brantford are single-detached. Single-detached starts have already far surpassed their annual totals from each of the previous ten years.

Province of Québec
In Québec, the trend of housing starts decreased in the third quarter. However, the year-to-date total is slightly higher than that of the first nine months of 2017, due to the strength of Montréal CMA rental apartment starts.

Halifax
Total housing starts in Halifax trended higher in September, impacted by continued strength in apartment construction. Improving employment levels and strong population gains are supporting a growing rental market demand with multiples starts expanding by 21% this month, year-over-year. After remaining flat for the past two months, single-detached starts also picked up pace in September, increasing by 11% compared to last year.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 188,683 units in September, down from 198,843 units in August. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 5.9% in September to 175,653 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 8.9% to 122,656 units in September while single-detached urban starts increased by 2.0% to 52,997 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 13,030 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		September	September		September	September		September	September
		2017	2018	%	2017	2018	%	2017	2018	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		63	60	-5	24	20	-17	87	80	-8
P.E.I.		42	22	-48	51	50	-2	93	72	-23
N.S.		141	152	8	306	418	37	447	570	28
N.B.		97	68	-30	218	105	-52	315	173	-45
Atlantic		343	302	-12	599	593	-1	942	895	-5
Qc		751	750	0	4,212	3,421	-19	4,963	4,171	-16
Ont.		2,602	1,973	-24	3,853	4,644	21	6,455	6,617	3
Man.		267	188	-30	210	545	160	477	733	54
Sask.		176	129	-27	113	126	12	289	255	-12
Alta.		1,209	877	-27	1,184	949	-20	2,393	1,826	-24
Prairies		1,652	1,194	-28	1,507	1,620	7	3,159	2,814	-11
B.C.		1,003	806	-20	2,263	1,432	-37	3,266	2,238	-31
Canada (10,000+)		6,351	5,025	-21	12,434	11,710	-6	18,785	16,735	-11
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		40	25	-38	134	13	-90	174	38	-78
Barrie		39	35	-10	16	17	6	55	52	-5
Belleville		60	37	-38	10	7	-30	70	44	-37
Brantford		36	15	-58	0	0	-	36	15	-58
Calgary		465	280	-40	449	554	23	914	834	-9
Edmonton		453	370	-18	631	227	-64	1,084	597	-45
Greater Sudbury		17	22	29	6	12	100	23	34	48
Guelph		19	12	-37	38	19	-50	57	31	-46
Halifax		76	84	11	280	338	21	356	422	19
Hamilton		70	147	110	78	296	279	148	443	199
Kelowna		91	36	-60	338	31	-91	429	67	-84
Kingston		32	38	19	47	21	-55	79	59	-25
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		101	70	-31	385	276	-28	486	346	-29
Lethbridge		44	57	30	20	13	-35	64	70	9
London		175	171	-2	182	73	-60	357	244	-32
Moncton		34	18	-47	118	48	-59	152	66	-57
Montréal		310	283	-9	2,713	2,068	-24	3,023	2,351	-22
Oshawa		90	136	51	411	33	-92	501	169	-66
Ottawa-Gatineau		318	328	3	489	464	-5	807	792	-2
	Gatineau	73	60	-18	56	128	129	129	188	46
	Ottawa	245	268	9	433	336	-22	678	604	-11
Peterborough		26	13	-50	8	23	188	34	36	6
Québec		64	68	6	869	520	-40	933	588	-37
Regina		56	31	-45	96	36	-63	152	67	-56
Saguenay		17	12	-29	8	32	300	25	44	76
St. Catharines-Niagara		86	34	-60	85	204	140	171	238	39
Saint John		18	15	-17	63	40	-37	81	55	-32
St. John's		49	45	-8	15	17	13	64	62	-3
Saskatoon		95	85	-11	6	73	##	101	158	56
Sherbrooke		22	56	155	41	144	251	63	200	217
Thunder Bay		17	17	-	24	0	-100	41	17	-59
Toronto		1,080	509	-53	1,900	3,061	61	2,980	3,570	20
Trois-Rivières		22	33	50	15	30	100	37	63	70
Vancouver		501	404	-19	1,072	839	-22	1,573	1,243	-21
Victoria		62	73	18	538	190	-65	600	263	-56
Windsor		66	67	2	24	31	29	90	98	9
Winnipeg		225	151	-33	189	519	175	414	670	62
Total		4,876	3,777	-23	11,298	10,269	-9	16,174	14,046	-13
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions. Data for 2018 based on 2016 Census Definitions. Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC ## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		August	September		August	September		August	September
		2018	2018	%	2018	2018	%	2018	2018	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		530	572	8	252	250	-1	782	822	5
P.E.I.		313	199	-36	276	600	117	589	799	36
N.S.		1,364	1,398	2	3,642	4,810	32	5,006	6,208	24
N.B.		685	582	-15	433	1,082	150	1,118	1,664	49
Qc		5,569	6,651	19	23,068	26,384	14	28,637	33,035	15
Ont.		20,218	21,776	8	41,760	53,426	28	61,978	75,202	21
Man.		2,489	2,144	-14	6,036	6,540	8	8,525	8,684	2
Sask.		1,118	1,324	18	1,908	1,512	-21	3,026	2,836	-6
Alta.		10,777	9,720	-10	21,090	11,072	-48	31,867	20,792	-35
B.C.		8,914	8,631	-3	36,247	16,980	-53	45,161	25,611	-43
Canada (10,000+)		51,977	52,997	2	134,712	122,656	-9	186,689	175,653	-6
Canada (All Areas)		61,199	62,973	3	137,644	125,709	-9	198,843	188,683	-5
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		238	270	13	108	156	44	346	426	23
Barrie		1,173	596	-49	132	204	55	1,305	800	-39
Belleville		369	381	3	348	84	-76	717	465	-35
Brantford		645	129	-80	192	0	-100	837	129	-85
Calgary		4,463	2,748	-38	8,316	6,648	-20	12,779	9,396	-26
Edmonton		4,614	4,232	-8	11,652	2,724	-77	16,266	6,956	-57
Greater Sudbury		140	166	19	48	144	200	188	310	65
Guelph		142	125	-12	1,392	228	-84	1,534	353	-77
Halifax		809	756	-7	3,204	4,056	27	4,013	4,812	20
Hamilton		697	1,375	97	1,896	3,552	87	2,593	4,927	90
Kelowna		410	381	-7	3,540	372	-89	3,950	753	-81
Kingston		164	412	151	144	252	75	308	664	116
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		645	664	3	1,308	3,312	153	1,953	3,976	104
Lethbridge		287	533	86	408	156	-62	695	689	-1
London		539	1,880	249	468	876	87	1,007	2,756	174
Moncton		241	168	-30	264	576	118	505	744	47
Montréal		1,781	2,641	48	10,066	24,512	144	11,847	27,153	129
Oshawa		1,147	1,875	63	2,112	396	-81	3,259	2,271	-30
Ottawa-Gatineau		3,816	3,187	-16	9,180	5,568	-39	12,996	8,755	-33
	Gatineau	521	413	-21	1,692	1,536	-9	2,213	1,949	-12
	Ottawa	3,295	2,774	-16	7,488	4,032	-46	10,783	6,806	-37
Peterborough		271	200	-26	180	276	53	451	476	6
Québec		614	646	5	1,980	6,240	215	2,594	6,886	165
Regina		358	351	-2	348	432	24	706	783	11
Saguenay		123	141	15	276	384	39	399	525	32
St. Catharines-Niagara		640	417	-35	444	2,448	451	1,084	2,865	164
Saint John		185	144	-22	0	480	##	185	624	237
St. John's		408	426	4	96	204	113	504	630	25
Saskatoon		576	809	40	1,368	876	-36	1,944	1,685	-13
Sherbrooke		134	490	266	360	1,728	380	494	2,218	349
Thunder Bay		149	139	-7	144	0	-100	293	139	-53
Toronto		5,501	5,531	1	23,652	36,732	55	29,153	42,263	45
Trois-Rivières		143	258	80	24	360	##	167	618	270
Vancouver		4,782	4,322	-10	19,956	10,068	-50	24,738	14,390	-42
Victoria		859	831	-3	6,168	2,280	-63	7,027	3,111	-56
Windsor		575	676	18	780	372	-52	1,355	1,048	-23
Winnipeg		2,084	1,870	-10	5,760	6,228	8	7,844	8,098	3
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions. Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC ## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

Related Links

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