Canadian Housing Starts Trend Increases in November

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

OTTAWA, Dec. 10, 2018 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 210,038 units in November 2018, compared to 206,460 units in October 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"The national trend in housing starts increased in November, following four consecutive months of decline," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "While single-detached starts continued to trend lower in November, this was more than offset by a gain in the trend of multi-unit starts following several months of weakness."

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
Total housing starts in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) continued trending lower in November 2018. The majority of November's starts were concentrated in the cities of Vancouver and Surrey, which together accounted for a third of total starts in the CMA. Year-to-date, total housing starts in the Vancouver CMA have decreased nine per cent compared to the same period in 2017. 

Kelowna
The trend measure for housing starts activity in the Kelowna CMA increased in November due, in large part, to a significant increase in multi-unit construction for the month. In particular, new apartment condo and rental projects bolstered housing starts in November.

Calgary
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts in November ticked up in Calgary compared to October largely due to gains in row and apartment units. The underlying trend, however, has been moving lower in the last three months, which can be partially attributed to moderating employment growth and elevated inventory levels.

Winnipeg
In the Winnipeg CMA, the trend in total housing starts in November increased from the previous month. The upward trend in multi-family starts in November was mainly due to the increase in apartment units, which was enough to offset the decrease in row units.

Toronto
Total housing starts during November trended to its highest level so far in 2018, mainly due to a surge in condominium apartment starts. The downward trend in single-detached homes persisted in November as a result of fewer new home sales in the year prior. Fewer site openings and high prices have curtailed sales of single-detached homes in recent years. 

Oshawa
Total housing starts trended higher as the Oshawa CMA saw the most starts for the month of November in almost three decades. Strong multi-unit starts, particularly in the City of Oshawa, offset the decline in the single-detached starts trend. Higher house prices continue to increase the popularity of relatively more affordable higher density housing.

Hamilton
While total housing starts in Hamilton trended down for the second consecutive month in November, they remained at an elevated level due to strength in the row and apartment segments. Row starts are outperforming in Hamilton because they attract buyers that can afford an average priced home. A number of those buyers chose to purchase a new row home rather than a resale single-detached home listed at the same price point, as most single-detached homes in that price range were in need of significant updating.

Windsor
The trend measure of total housing starts continued its climb to the highest level in 2018. Growth this month came from a jump in apartment starts as well as steady single-detached starts. This year's rally in housing starts coincided with low supply conditions in the existing home market, leading to additional demand for new homes.

Québec CMA
From January to November 2018, housing starts in the Québec metropolitan area were down by 25% from the same period in 2017. Residential construction has been more moderate this year, mainly on account of a slowdown in the condominium segment. The year should end with slightly fewer new rental housing units, even though activity has remained relatively significant. Supply has been stimulated by certain factors favouring demand for apartments, including migration and the aging population.

Sherbrooke
From January to November 2018, housing starts in the Sherbrooke CMA saw an increase of 15% over the same period in 2017. This strong residential construction was mainly supported by significant growth in the conventional rental housing segment, which was stimulated by decreases in the vacancy rate in 2017 and 2018. Overall, the rise in full-time employment and migration should continue to support housing demand over the coming months.

New Brunswick
New Brunswick's total housing starts in November 2018 were 14% higher compared to the same month last year. The increase was due to a 31% rise in multi-unit housing starts while single-detached starts were down 9% compared to November 2017. Multi-unit construction is being driven by increased demand from recent record immigration levels and intra-provincial migration to major centres. A relatively healthy resale market is also enabling seniors to move from homeownership to rental.

Prince Edward Island (PEI)
Total housing starts in PEI were 93% higher in November compared to a year ago. Singles increased by 17% and multiples by 133%, which contributed directly to the significant monthly gain. This was the result of new multi-unit apartment projects under development. Year-to-date, total starts are trending 14% higher, driven primarily by solid employment growth.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 215,941 units in November, up from 206,753 units in October. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 5% in November to 202,054 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 4% to 151,596 units in November while single-detached urban starts increased by 8% to 50,458 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 13,887 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		November 2017	November 2018	%	November 2017	November 2018	%	November 2017	November 2018	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		59	61	3	71	21	-70	130	82	-37
P.E.I.		29	34	17	55	128	133	84	162	93
N.S.		74	155	109	198	144	-27	272	299	10
N.B.		82	75	-9	106	139	31	188	214	14
Atlantic		244	325	33	430	432	0	674	757	12
Qc		580	572	-1	3,484	3,518	1	4,064	4,090	1
Ont.		2,183	1,727	-21	6,170	5,307	-14	8,353	7,034	-16
Man.		209	215	3	324	455	40	533	670	26
Sask.		137	114	-17	172	80	-53	309	194	-37
Alta.		1,027	842	-18	1,775	1,316	-26	2,802	2,158	-23
Prairies		1,373	1,171	-15	2,271	1,851	-18	3,644	3,022	-17
B.C.		1,021	818	-20	2,760	2,334	-15	3,781	3,152	-17
Canada (10,000+)		5,401	4,613	-15	15,115	13,442	-11	20,516	18,055	-12
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		57	26	-54	112	27	-76	169	53	-69
Barrie		83	17	-80	73	2	-97	156	19	-88
Belleville		34	35	3	18	20	11	52	55	6
Brantford		8	23	188	2	109	##	10	132	##
Calgary		390	299	-23	1,114	537	-52	1,504	836	-44
Edmonton		400	376	-6	526	624	19	926	1,000	8
Greater Sudbury		18	11	-39	6	2	-67	24	13	-46
Guelph		19	19	-	250	76	-70	269	95	-65
Halifax		51	75	47	171	95	-44	222	170	-23
Hamilton		59	38	-36	366	152	-58	425	190	-55
Kelowna		88	66	-25	145	305	110	233	371	59
Kingston		11	40	264	11	28	155	22	68	209
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		88	68	-23	570	228	-60	658	296	-55
Lethbridge		34	19	-44	6	9	50	40	28	-30
London		163	123	-25	478	114	-76	641	237	-63
Moncton		23	25	9	91	110	21	114	135	18
Montréal		238	247	4	1,921	2,199	14	2,159	2,446	13
Oshawa		111	85	-23	188	280	49	299	365	22
Ottawa-Gatineau		242	262	8	787	584	-26	1,029	846	-18
Gatineau		48	36	-25	33	231	##	81	267	230
Ottawa		194	226	16	754	353	-53	948	579	-39
Peterborough		16	25	56	0	0	-	16	25	56
Québec		66	94	42	975	476	-51	1,041	570	-45
Regina		36	16	-56	102	26	-75	138	42	-70
Saguenay		19	16	-16	41	14	-66	60	30	-50
St. Catharines-Niagara		110	49	-55	132	66	-50	242	115	-52
Saint John		25	24	-4	2	6	200	27	30	11
St. John's		42	46	10	52	15	-71	94	61	-35
Saskatoon		79	81	3	60	32	-47	139	113	-19
Sherbrooke		22	19	-14	130	138	6	152	157	3
Thunder Bay		16	9	-44	12	15	25	28	24	-14
Toronto		886	548	-38	3,014	3,568	18	3,900	4,116	6
Trois-Rivières		13	16	23	35	50	43	48	66	38
Vancouver		497	418	-16	2,072	1,434	-31	2,569	1,852	-28
Victoria		69	55	-20	112	187	67	181	242	34
Windsor		45	51	13	96	82	-15	141	133	-6
Winnipeg		153	179	17	291	426	46	444	605	36
Total		4,211	3,500	-17	13,961	12,036	-14	18,172	15,536	-15
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions. Data for 2018 based on 2016 Census Definitions.  Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC ## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		October 2018	November 2018	%	October 2018	November 2018	%	October 2018	November 2018	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		513	576	12	228	207	-9	741	783	6
P.E.I.		291	300	3	180	1,536	##	471	1,836	290
N.S.		1,210	1,352	12	936	1,636	75	2,146	2,988	39
N.B.		548	664	21	1,478	1,632	10	2,026	2,296	13
Qc		5,898	6,402	9	37,531	36,882	-2	43,429	43,284	0
Ont.		18,373	18,931	3	67,407	59,893	-11	85,780	78,824	-8
Man.		1,977	2,524	28	3,096	5,460	76	5,073	7,984	57
Sask.		1,153	1,267	10	4,980	960	-81	6,133	2,227	-64
Alta.		8,900	9,375	5	7,932	15,681	98	16,832	25,056	49
B.C.		7,948	9,067	14	22,128	27,709	25	30,076	36,776	22
Canada (10,000+)		46,811	50,458	8	145,896	151,596	4	192,707	202,054	5
Canada (All Areas)		57,093	60,858	7	149,659	155,081	4	206,753	215,941	4
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		259	258	0	156	1,476	##	415	1,734	318
Barrie		567	103	-82	204	108	-47	771	211	-73
Belleville		394	568	44	84	636	##	478	1,204	152
Brantford		134	228	70	0	888	##	134	1,116	##
Calgary		2,799	3,098	11	6,648	4,956	-25	9,447	8,054	-15
Edmonton		4,128	3,625	-12	2,724	2,184	-20	6,852	5,809	-15
Greater Sudbury		166	186	12	144	0	-100	310	186	-40
Guelph		124	117	-6	228	1,260	453	352	1,377	291
Halifax		719	499	-31	4,056	612	-85	4,775	1,111	-77
Hamilton		1,411	521	-63	3,552	3,516	-1	4,963	4,037	-19
Kelowna		375	344	-8	372	348	-6	747	692	-7
Kingston		408	306	-25	252	300	19	660	606	-8
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		714	1,038	45	3,312	240	-93	4,026	1,278	-68
Lethbridge		506	296	-42	156	144	-8	662	440	-34
London		1,887	1,072	-43	876	1,512	73	2,763	2,584	-6
Moncton		166	188	13	576	1,104	92	742	1,292	74
Montréal		2,586	2,439	-6	24,561	30,968	26	27,147	33,407	23
Oshawa		1,716	1,224	-29	396	3,480	##	2,112	4,704	123
Ottawa-Gatineau		3,080	3,057	-1	5,568	14,244	156	8,648	17,301	100
Gatineau		391	241	-38	1,536	684	-55	1,927	925	-52
Ottawa		2,689	2,816	5	4,032	13,560	236	6,721	16,376	144
Peterborough		192	88	-54	276	324	17	468	412	-12
Québec		668	933	40	6,240	3,636	-42	6,908	4,569	-34
Regina		348	290	-17	432	1,308	203	780	1,598	105
Saguenay		141	176	25	384	456	19	525	632	20
St. Catharines-Niagara		410	1,067	160	2,448	1,200	-51	2,858	2,267	-21
Saint John		140	90	-36	480	0	-100	620	90	-85
St. John's		422	362	-14	204	228	12	626	590	-6
Saskatoon		806	736	-9	876	3,432	292	1,682	4,168	148
Sherbrooke		492	314	-36	1,728	240	-86	2,220	554	-75
Thunder Bay		138	119	-14	0	0	-	138	119	-14
Toronto		5,418	4,672	-14	36,732	39,792	8	42,150	44,464	5
Trois-Rivières		248	142	-43	360	2,088	480	608	2,230	267
Vancouver		4,170	3,692	-11	10,068	14,232	41	14,238	17,924	26
Victoria		817	712	-13	2,280	2,016	-12	3,097	2,728	-12
Windsor		672	579	-14	372	336	-10	1,044	915	-12
Winnipeg		1,787	1,501	-16	6,228	2,124	-66	8,015	3,625	-55
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.  Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC ## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

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