Canadian Housing Starts Trend Stable in February

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada - All areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Logo: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Logo: Government of Canada (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

OTTAWA, March 8, 2018 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 225,276 units in February 2018, compared to 224,572 units in January 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"The national trend in housing starts has been very stable since November 2017, masking offsetting trends for multi-unit and single-detached dwellings," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "Multi-unit starts have trended higher in recent months in most major urban centres while single-detached starts have trended lower."

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
February housing starts in the Vancouver census metropolitan area (CMA) continued to build on the increase in construction activity in the previous month, leading to a strong start to the year in 2018. The North Shore, Burnaby, and the City of Vancouver were the main contributors to the increase with a number of condominium and rental multi-family units getting underway.

Victoria
The trend measure for housing starts in the Victoria CMA moved upward significantly in February as a result of a large number of multi-unit dwellings getting underway, particularly new apartment rentals and condominiums. Demand for multi-unit housing of all types remains high in the Victoria area as inventories of unsold units and rental vacancies remain low.

Calgary
Total housing starts in the Calgary CMA trended lower in February 2018, compared to the previous month as the relative pace of starts declined from January. The trend in multiple construction, which was relatively strong in the second half of 2017, has moderated. Elevated apartment inventories continue to slow the pace of construction.

Winnipeg
Housing starts continued to moderate in the Winnipeg CMA in February as the trend in total housing starts moved lower. The decline in total housing starts was largely concentrated in the multi-family segment, with rental apartment units posting a considerable decrease compared to last year. Despite strong levels of employment and balanced market conditions, new housing construction has been impacted by an elevated level of production last year.

Oshawa
The pace of single-detached housing starts in February 2018 was the highest over an 11-month period. Conversely, multi-unit housing starts slowed in February following a surge in the second half of 2017. Solid demand for more affordable housing relative to neighbouring Toronto CMA, continues to stimulate new home construction activity in Oshawa.

Toronto
Housing starts in Toronto CMA trended higher in February on the back of a record number of apartment starts. Elevated prices and affordability concerns in the low-rise market have resulted in significant increases in condominium apartment construction. Low-rise home starts continued to trend lower, as increased supply in the resale market has resulted in less spillover demand for pre-construction units.

Montréal
The surge in the construction of rental apartment units continues in the Montréal area, with 1,400 units started since the beginning of the year, about three times more than in the same period last year. For now, the focus is almost entirely on conventional rental apartment construction, but in the context of an aging population, several seniors' residences are expected to be started in the Montréal area by the end of the year.

Trois-Rivières
In February 2018, housing starts continued to trend downward in the Trois-Rivières CMA. With just 13 starts in the first two months of 2018, this was the slowest start to a year since 1999. The high inventory of unabsorbed housing units and low population growth are contributing to reducing the need for new homes on the Trois-Rivières market.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 229,737 units in February, up from 215,260 units in January. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 7.1% in February to 211,211 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 15% to 154,535 units in February while single-detached urban starts decreased by 9.8% to 56,676 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18,526 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
			Single-Detached			All Others			Total
			February 2017	February 2018	%	February 2017	February 2018	%	February 2017	February 2018	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.			19	13	-32	14	2	-86	33	15	-55
P.E.I.			5	6	20	8	24	200	13	30	131
N.S.			56	51	-9	293	158	-46	349	209	-40
N.B.			6	11	83	1	0	-100	7	11	57
Atlantic			86	81	-6	316	184	-42	402	265	-34
Qc			230	187	-19	1,918	2,250	17	2,148	2,437	13
Ont.			1,711	1,284	-25	3,122	5,937	90	4,833	7,221	49
Man.			195	149	-24	359	153	-57	554	302	-45
Sask.			120	77	-36	152	154	1	272	231	-15
Alta.			891	798	-10	1,035	895	-14	1,926	1,693	-12
Prairies			1,206	1,024	-15	1,546	1,202	-22	2,752	2,226	-19
B.C.			614	532	-13	1,558	1,842	18	2,172	2,374	9
Canada (10,000+)			3,847	3,108	-19	8,460	11,415	35	12,307	14,523	18
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission			11	24	118	7	30	329	18	54	200
Barrie			40	54	35	139	74	-47	179	128	-28
Belleville			6	8	33	2	0	-100	8	8	-
Brantford			6	17	183	8	0	-100	14	17	21
Calgary			296	296	-	212	282	33	508	578	14
Edmonton			348	346	-1	758	487	-36	1,106	833	-25
Greater Sudbury			0	0	-	0	0	-	0	0	-
Guelph			16	8	-50	105	36	-66	121	44	-64
Halifax			35	33	-6	267	136	-49	302	169	-44
Hamilton			70	61	-13	277	96	-65	347	157	-55
Kelowna			68	22	-68	154	15	-90	222	37	-83
Kingston			12	8	-33	0	16	##	12	24	100
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo			95	114	20	57	105	84	152	219	44
Lethbridge			55	33	-40	6	5	-17	61	38	-38
London			120	111	-8	93	20	-78	213	131	-38
Moncton			2	4	100	0	0	-	2	4	100
Montréal			123	114	-7	1,528	1,947	27	1,651	2,061	25
Oshawa			115	104	-10	19	6	-68	134	110	-18
Ottawa-Gatineau			141	75	-47	546	68	-88	687	143	-79
	Gatineau		15	16	7	90	10	-89	105	26	-75
	Ottawa		126	59	-53	456	58	-87	582	117	-80
Peterborough			6	17	183	0	0	-	6	17	183
Québec			29	10	-66	81	42	-48	110	52	-53
Regina			43	32	-26	131	108	-18	174	140	-20
Saguenay			3	3	-	2	0	-100	5	3	-40
St. Catharines-Niagara			86	70	-19	54	68	26	140	138	-1
Saint John			2	2	-	0	0	-	2	2	-
St. John's			16	13	-19	0	2	##	16	15	-6
Saskatoon			68	37	-46	20	33	65	88	70	-20
Sherbrooke			9	4	-56	39	83	113	48	87	81
Thunder Bay			0	0	-	0	0	-	0	0	-
Toronto			790	394	-50	1,751	5,283	202	2,541	5,677	123
Trois-Rivières			2	5	150	0	2	##	2	7	250
Vancouver			280	273	-3	1,169	1,347	15	1,449	1,620	12
Victoria			83	50	-40	127	261	106	210	311	48
Windsor			22	28	27	13	43	231	35	71	103
Winnipeg			158	127	-20	294	121	-59	452	248	-45
Total			3,156	2,497	-21	7,859	10,716	36	11,015	13,213	20
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions. Data for 2018 based on 2016 Census Definitions. Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC ## not calculable/extreme value
Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
			Single-Detached			All Others			Total
			January 2018	February 2018	%	January 2018	February 2018	%	January 2018	February 2018	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.			611	637	4	315	29	-91	926	666	-28
P.E.I.			166	321	93	48	288	##	214	609	185
N.S.			1,471	1,285	-13	1,453	2,017	39	2,924	3,302	13
N.B.			657	743	13	237	13	-95	894	756	-15
Qc			6,469	5,826	-10	30,140	37,067	23	36,609	42,893	17
Ont.			25,624	24,758	-3	56,097	78,080	39	81,721	102,838	26
Man.			2,492	2,289	-8	1,404	1,836	31	3,896	4,125	6
Sask.			1,448	1,420	-2	3,996	1,848	-54	5,444	3,268	-40
Alta.			12,295	10,983	-11	10,799	11,149	3	23,094	22,132	-4
B.C.			11,574	8,414	-27	29,869	22,208	-26	41,443	30,622	-26
Canada (10,000+)			62,807	56,676	-10	134,358	154,535	15	197,165	211,211	7
Canada (All Areas)			76,509	70,881	-7	138,752	158,857	14	215,260	229,737	7
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission			580	413	-29	240	360	50	820	773	-6
Barrie			391	2,226	469	816	888	9	1,207	3,114	158
Belleville			464	477	3	696	0	-100	1,160	477	-59
Brantford			750	266	-65	24	0	-100	774	266	-66
Calgary			4,893	4,091	-16	3,912	3,384	-13	8,805	7,475	-15
Edmonton			5,163	4,863	-6	5,052	5,844	16	10,215	10,707	5
Greater Sudbury			181	124	-31	0	0	-	181	124	-31
Guelph			60	121	102	2,400	432	-82	2,460	553	-78
Halifax			988	901	-9	1,248	1,632	31	2,236	2,533	13
Hamilton			798	1,151	44	1,632	1,152	-29	2,430	2,303	-5
Kelowna			776	313	-60	612	180	-71	1,388	493	-64
Kingston			317	271	-15	144	192	33	461	463	0
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo			2,236	1,779	-20	6,804	1,260	-81	9,040	3,039	-66
Lethbridge			448	418	-7	144	60	-58	592	478	-19
London			1,439	1,916	33	96	240	150	1,535	2,156	40
Moncton			280	316	13	0	0	-	280	316	13
Montréal			2,612	2,599	0	9,596	24,285	153	12,208	26,884	120
Oshawa			1,323	1,586	20	768	72	-91	2,091	1,658	-21
Ottawa-Gatineau			3,252	2,548	-22	6,180	816	-87	9,432	3,364	-64
	Gatineau		466	546	17	2,544	120	-95	3,010	666	-78
	Ottawa		2,786	2,002	-28	3,636	696	-81	6,422	2,698	-58
Peterborough			543	626	15	0	0	-	543	626	15
Québec			685	262	-62	2,652	504	-81	3,337	766	-77
Regina			506	519	3	3,264	1,296	-60	3,770	1,815	-52
Saguenay			285	201	-29	0	0	-	285	201	-29
St. Catharines-Niagara			967	1,214	26	792	816	3	1,759	2,030	15
Saint John			162	130	-20	0	0	-	162	130	-20
St. John's			566	572	1	120	24	-80	686	596	-13
Saskatoon			749	680	-9	648	396	-39	1,397	1,076	-23
Sherbrooke			195	211	8	216	996	361	411	1,207	194
Thunder Bay			60	139	132	0	0	-	60	139	132
Toronto			8,736	7,635	-13	31,260	63,396	103	39,996	71,031	78
Trois-Rivières			40	413	##	60	24	-60	100	437	337
Vancouver			6,167	4,175	-32	26,052	16,164	-38	32,219	20,339	-37
Victoria			837	662	-21	540	3,132	480	1,377	3,794	176
Windsor			475	603	27	84	516	##	559	1,119	100
Winnipeg			2,032	1,872	-8	1,080	1,452	34	3,112	3,324	7
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions. Data for 2018 based on 2016 Census Definitions. Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC ## not calculable/extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

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