Canadian housing starts trended higher in September

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

OTTAWA, Oct. 8, 2019 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 223,507 units in September 2019, compared to 218,782 units in August 2019, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"The national trend in housing starts increased in September," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "Higher trending single-detached starts in urban centres since July, following several months of declines combined with higher-trending multi-family units in September to push the total starts trend to its highest level since April 2018".

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
Vancouver Census Metropolitan (CMA) housing starts continued to trend higher in September. Compared to the same period last year, year-to-date single-detached home starts declined while the multi-units starts increased. In September, more than 85% of new construction was multi-units, most of which were in the City of Vancouver and the City of Port Moody. Overall, continuous strengthening of economic fundamentals supported a steady growth of 23% in the year-to-date starts in the CMA between 2018 and 2019.

Edmonton
Housing starts in Edmonton trended upwards for the fourth consecutive month in September. The year-over-year increase in total housing starts was largely driven by the multi-family market segment as levels more than doubled due to a rise in both rental and condominium starts. Despite elevated inventories, new housing construction has picked up, leading to an increase in year-to-date housing starts.

Saskatoon
Total housing starts in Saskatoon trended higher in September after construction on a number of condominium apartments got underway in the Brighton neighbourhood in the city's east end. This supported a faster overall pace of multi-family construction, which offset a declining trend in single-detached starts during the month. Despite this increase in the six-month trend, total residential starts are down by 10% from January through September, compared to the same period in 2018.

Kingston
The trend in total housing starts in the Kingston CMA stood at a 29-year high this September. Both single-detached and multi-unit starts trended higher, with the strongest growth coming from condominium apartments. Year-to-date apartment starts are at a four-decade high.

Toronto
September total housing starts continued its upward trend in Toronto with all ground-oriented type home starts trending higher. The starts trends for semi-detached and townhomes were particularly strong, indicative of the popularity of these relatively affordable housing types among buyers looking for ground-oriented homes. Despite condominium apartment starts trending slightly lower in September, they continue to dominate housing construction across the Toronto CMA.

Ottawa
Ottawa housing starts trended up in September. Year-to-date activity is now up 11% over last year. Strong growth in apartment and row home construction offset declining single-detached starts. Rising single-detached home prices are pressuring affordability in both the new home and resale markets and skewing demand toward less expensive housing types.

Québec
From January to September, rental housing starts reached the highest year-to-date total for this period in at least 30 years. The growth in the supply of apartments was stimulated, in part, by the aging of the population. In addition to the many conventional rental housing projects started since the beginning of the year, in September, foundations were laid for over 700 units in seniors' residences. Overall, the strength of the rental housing segment led to an increase of 29% in total housing starts in the Québec area since the beginning of 2019. 

Trois-Rivières
In September 2019, housing starts continued their upward trend in the Trois-Rivières CMA. This rise was attributable to the renewed growth in single-detached housing starts and the increase in rental housing starts. The aging population and the low vacancy rate are stimulating rental housing starts. 

New Brunswick
Total housing starts in New Brunswick increased in September compared to the same month last year. Multi-unit construction continues to dominate new home construction. The number of multi-unit starts this year is the highest on record for the January to September period. Sellers' market conditions are contributing to the rebound in the single-detached market in major centres of the province. The September increase in single-family home construction was the second consecutive month of year-over-year growth. Year-to-date, total housing starts are 64% higher compared to 2018.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 221,202 units in September, down 2.5% from 226,871 units in August. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 2.4% in September to 208,503 units. Multiple urban starts decreased slightly by 0.2% to 159,742 units in September while single-detached urban starts decreased by 9.2% to 48,761 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12,699 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		September 2018	September  2019	%	September 2018	September 2019	%	September 2018	September 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		60	56	-7	20	31	55	80	87	9
P.E.I.		22	25	14	50	130	160	72	155	115
N.S.		152	164	8	418	172	-59	570	336	-41
N.B.		68	76	12	105	270	157	173	346	100
Atlantic		302	321	6	593	603	2	895	924	3
Qc		750	741	-1	3,421	3,260	-5	4,171	4,001	-4
Ont.		1,973	1,804	-9	4,644	5,633	21	6,617	7,437	12
Man.		188	168	-11	545	158	-71	733	326	-56
Sask.		129	77	-40	126	230	83	255	307	20
Alta.		878	952	8	949	1,810	91	1,827	2,762	51
Prairies		1,195	1,197	0	1,620	2,198	36	2,815	3,395	21
B.C.		805	653	-19	1,432	2,729	91	2,237	3,382	51
Canada (10,000+)		5,025	4,716	-6	11,710	14,423	23	16,735	19,139	14
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		25	31	24	13	145	##	38	176	363
Barrie		35	19	-46	17	55	224	52	74	42
Belleville		37	55	49	7	8	14	44	63	43
Brantford		15	103	##	0	28	##	15	131	##
Calgary		280	383	37	554	1,182	113	834	1,565	88
Edmonton		371	403	9	227	517	128	598	920	54
Greater Sudbury		22	22	-	12	0	-100	34	22	-35
Guelph		12	21	75	19	106	458	31	127	310
Halifax		84	101	20	338	144	-57	422	245	-42
Hamilton		147	93	-37	296	99	-67	443	192	-57
Kelowna		36	44	22	31	83	168	67	127	90
Kingston		38	45	18	21	356	##	59	401	##
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		70	83	19	276	602	118	346	685	98
Lethbridge		57	31	-46	13	12	-8	70	43	-39
London		171	132	-23	73	158	116	244	290	19
Moncton		18	18	-	48	202	321	66	220	233
Montréal		283	223	-21	2,068	1,411	-32	2,351	1,634	-30
Oshawa		136	32	-76	33	94	185	169	126	-25
Ottawa-Gatineau		328	336	2	464	1,195	158	792	1,531	93
Gatineau		60	60	-	128	182	42	188	242	29
Ottawa		268	276	3	336	1,013	201	604	1,289	113
Peterborough		13	20	54	23	13	-43	36	33	-8
Québec		68	77	13	520	909	75	588	986	68
Regina		31	19	-39	36	54	50	67	73	9
Saguenay		12	14	17	32	18	-44	44	32	-27
St. Catharines-Niagara		34	112	229	204	275	35	238	387	63
Saint John		15	19	27	40	51	28	55	70	27
St. John's		45	42	-7	17	25	47	62	67	8
Saskatoon		85	52	-39	73	165	126	158	217	37
Sherbrooke		56	77	38	144	189	31	200	266	33
Thunder Bay		17	16	-6	0	3	##	17	19	12
Toronto		509	330	-35	3,061	2,419	-21	3,570	2,749	-23
Trois-Rivières		33	30	-9	30	56	87	63	86	37
Vancouver		403	316	-22	839	1,810	116	1,242	2,126	71
Victoria		73	67	-8	190	442	133	263	509	94
Windsor		67	51	-24	31	101	226	98	152	55
Winnipeg		151	140	-7	519	130	-75	670	270	-60
Total		3,777	3,557	-6	10,269	13,057	27	14,046	16,614	18

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.

Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		August 2019	September 2019	%	August 2019	September 2019	%	August 2019	September 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		436	484	11	294	382	30	730	866	19
P.E.I.		176	212	20	588	1,560	165	764	1,772	132
N.S.		1,930	1,468	-24	2,593	1,922	-26	4,523	3,390	-25
N.B.		773	636	-18	2,746	3,106	13	3,519	3,742	6
Qc		6,211	6,267	1	41,807	28,867	-31	48,018	35,134	-27
Ont.		24,076	19,748	-18	59,639	65,185	9	83,715	84,933	1
Man.		1,806	1,892	5	3,840	1,896	-51	5,646	3,788	-33
Sask.		977	782	-20	1,764	2,760	56	2,741	3,542	29
Alta.		9,866	10,332	5	19,220	21,451	12	29,086	31,783	9
B.C.		7,432	6,940	-7	27,518	32,613	19	34,950	39,553	13
Canada (10,000+)		53,683	48,761	-9	160,009	159,742	0	213,692	208,503	-2
Canada (All Areas)		63,759	58,550	-8	163,112	162,653	0	226,871	221,202	-2
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		295	330	12	828	1,740	110	1,123	2,070	84
Barrie		359	309	-14	348	660	90	707	969	37
Belleville		473	530	12	276	96	-65	749	626	-16
Brantford		449	722	61	168	336	100	617	1,058	71
Calgary		3,751	3,730	-1	8,568	14,184	66	12,319	17,914	45
Edmonton		4,513	4,527	0	9,744	6,204	-36	14,257	10,731	-25
Greater Sudbury		207	158	-24	264	0	-100	471	158	-66
Guelph		440	257	-42	2,232	1,272	-43	2,672	1,529	-43
Halifax		1,147	952	-17	2,436	1,728	-29	3,583	2,680	-25
Hamilton		1,377	898	-35	816	1,188	46	2,193	2,086	-5
Kelowna		542	531	-2	5,292	996	-81	5,834	1,527	-74
Kingston		442	468	6	2,664	4,272	60	3,106	4,740	53
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		1,045	907	-13	9,264	7,224	-22	10,309	8,131	-21
Lethbridge		433	327	-24	168	144	-14	601	471	-22
London		1,431	1,480	3	5,028	1,896	-62	6,459	3,376	-48
Moncton		256	169	-34	1,440	2,424	68	1,696	2,593	53
Montréal		2,418	2,188	-10	23,100	16,526	-28	25,518	18,714	-27
Oshawa		905	478	-47	348	1,128	224	1,253	1,606	28
Ottawa-Gatineau		3,117	3,023	-3	4,776	14,340	200	7,893	17,363	120
Gatineau		435	411	-6	576	2,184	279	1,011	2,595	157
Ottawa		2,682	2,612	-3	4,200	12,156	189	6,882	14,768	115
Peterborough		343	282	-18	156	156	-	499	438	-12
Québec		574	798	39	5,556	10,908	96	6,130	11,706	91
Regina		270	202	-25	60	648	##	330	850	158
Saguenay		226	173	-23	120	216	80	346	389	12
St. Catharines-Niagara		1,323	1,510	14	1,644	3,300	101	2,967	4,810	62
Saint John		164	180	10	516	612	19	680	792	16
St. John's		328	358	9	192	300	56	520	658	27
Saskatoon		627	505	-19	1,332	1,980	49	1,959	2,485	27
Sherbrooke		399	556	39	408	2,268	456	807	2,824	250
Thunder Bay		98	109	11	48	36	-25	146	145	-1
Toronto		5,895	3,776	-36	30,888	29,028	-6	36,783	32,804	-11
Trois-Rivières		251	208	-17	204	672	229	455	880	93
Vancouver		3,554	3,300	-7	16,272	21,720	33	19,826	25,020	26
Victoria		661	706	7	996	5,304	433	1,657	6,010	263
Windsor		593	509	-14	924	1,212	31	1,517	1,721	13
Winnipeg		1,466	1,679	15	3,072	1,560	-49	4,538	3,239	-29

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.

Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

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