CMHC Housing Outlook Conference
Across the province
As a result of improving global and national economic conditions, Quebec's economy, which has been contracting since the end of 2008, will begin to recover in the latter part of this year. Domestic consumption is already showing signs of growth while fiscal and monetary policy will continue to stimulate the economy. CMCH thus expects the
According to CMHC, 43,000 starts are expected in the province in 2010. Sales of existing homes will surpass the 78,000 mark next year. "In 2009, a weaker economic environment, combined with increased supply of homes in certain market segments, lowered housing construction in
Montréal area
Resale market to remain stable
In 2009, after beginning the year with a major decrease in transactions, the resale market was surprisingly vigorous starting in the second quarter. This was noted in all large sectors of the Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA). Overall, sales in the CMA should end 2009 slightly behind 2008 (-0.8 per cent). Given the rather weak economic recovery and stagnant employment level, though, the volume of transactions will post only a small increase in 2010 (+1.0 per cent). In all, 40,500 properties will change hands in 2010.
The anticipated small rise in mortgage rates during the second half of 2010 will contribute to the easing of the resale market, which will again start moving toward balanced conditions. The average price will reach
New home market
In all, 18,300 dwellings will get under way in 2009, or 16.5 per cent fewer than in 2008. In 2010, starts should fall by 1.1 per cent from 2009, to 18,100 units. "While the annual starts volumes surpassed the 20,000-unit mark in the last seven years, meeting a latent demand that had not been expressed at the end of the 1990s, the starts level forecast for 2010 will be more in line with the rate of household formation in the Montréal area," explained Bertrand Recher, Senior Market Analyst.
In 2010, with the better economic environment, single-detached home starts will rise by 6 per cent, while new multi-family housing units will fall by 3.8 per cent.
In the retirement home segment, construction should slow down in 2010, as this market is facing a drop in demand following years of intense activity.
Rental market to stay tight
The rental market should continue to tighten this fall. The vacancy rate in the Montréal CMA will decrease to 2.1 per cent, from 2.4 per cent in the fall of 2008. Rental housing demand will be supported by the increase in the number of immigrants in Montréal. In 2010, even with the high level of immigration, the vacancy rate should rise slightly, to 2.4 per cent, as the difficult employment situation for people aged from 15 to 24 years will have an even greater impact.
Geographic sectors on the rise
The population movement toward the suburbs continues. In fact, the Island of Montréal still presents negative net migration in favour of the suburbs. A shift in the population from the close suburbs (Laval and Longueuil) to more outlying sectors can also be observed. While several factors influence people's choice of a place of residence, the search for affordable properties largely explains this population movement. This is notably the case for condominiums, which now account for nearly 6 out of 10 starts on the Island of Montréal and continue to gain a foothold in the suburbs, particularly on the South Shore.
As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions. For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642.
CMHC Housing Market Forecasts: Province of Québec (Fall 2009)
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2004 2005 2006 2007
-------- -------- -------- --------
Residential Construction
(Starts)
Single Detached (1) 28,871 23,930 21,917 22,177
-17.1 -8.4 1.2
Multi-Family (2) 29,577 26,980 25,960 26,376
-8.8 -3.8 1.6
Total 58,448 50,910 47,877 48,553
-12.9 -6.0 1.4
Resale Market
MLS(R) Sales (3) 70,669 72,670 74,192 83,847
2.8 2.1 13.0
MLS(R) Average Price ($) 167,546 180,529 190,348 202,392
7.7 5.4 6.3
Other indicators
GDP Growth (%) 2.7 1.5 1.7 2.6
Employment Growth (%) 1.4 1.0 1.3 2.3
Total Net Migration (4) 36,189 29,035 28,118 32,698
-19.8 -3.2 16.3
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2008 2009(f) 2010(f)
-------- -------- --------
Residential Construction
(Starts)
Single Detached (1) 19,778 17,000 18,200
-10.8 -14.0 7.1
Multi-Family (2) 28,123 26,300 24,800
6.6 -6.5 -5.7
Total 47,901 43,300 43,000
-1.3 -9.6 -0.7
Resale Market
MLS(R) Sales (3) 79,402 78,250 78,250
-5.3 -1.5 0.0
MLS(R) Average Price ($) 210,775 218,500 223,750
4.1 3.7 2.4
Other indicators
GDP Growth (%) 1.0 -2.0 2.1
Employment Growth (%) 0.8 -0.7 0.7
Total Net Migration (4) 39,158 43,000 44,500
19.8 9.8 3.5
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Notes: (1) Dwelling for wich all walls are detached
(2) Semi-detached, row or apartment units
(3) Multiple Listing Service (MLS(R))
(4) Sum of net international migration, net interprovincial
migration and net non-permanent residents
Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association, Statistics Canada, CMHC; (f)
CMHC forecasts
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Note: 2010 housing starts forecast range : 34,150 to 49,950 units.
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Forecast Summary - Fall 2009
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Single-
de-
Total tached MLS(R) Rental
Major housing housing MLS(R) average vacancy Average
Centres Year starts starts sales price rate rent
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Gatineau 2008 3,304 1,120 4,390 187,039 1.9 677
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2009(F) 3,000 950 4,400 194,550 2.1 690
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2010(F) 3,000 900 4,400 199,400 2.4 705
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Montréal 2008 21,927 6,602 40,441 259,033 2.4 659
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2009(F) 18,300 5,100 40,100 271,000 2.1 668
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2010(F) 18,100 5,400 40,500 279,000 2.4 675
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Québec 2008 5,457 2,031 7,838 196,839 0.6 653
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2009(F) 5,025 1,725 7,450 210,000 0.6 663
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2010(F) 5,000 1,600 7,700 218,000 0.8 673
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Saguenay 2008 869 400 1,557 139,043 1.6 518
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2009(F) 515 315 1,450 144,000 1.8 525
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2010(F) 800 290 1,525 150,000 1.8 530
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Sherbrooke 2008 1,627 802 1,864 179,434 2.8 543
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2009(F) 1,565 700 1,870 186,600 3.0 555
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2010(F) 1,345 720 1,950 194,000 3.1 565
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Trois- 2008 1,148 373 1,061 132,987 1.7 505
Rivières -------------------------------------------------------------
2009(F) 900 350 1,030 137,000 1.8 520
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2010(F) 1,200 320 1,080 140,000 2.0 530
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Quebec 2008 47,901 19,778 79,402 210,775 s.o. s.o.
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2009(F) 43,300 17,000 78,250 218,500 s.o. s.o.
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2010(F) 43,000 18,200 78,250 223,750 s.o. s.o.
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n/a: Not applicable
MLS(R) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate
Association (CREA).
Sources: CMHC, Canadian Real Estate Association, Statistics Canada, CMHC
Forecast 2009-2010
Source for Quebec CMA's MLS(R) data: The Quebec Federation of Real Estate
Boards by Centris(TM), CMHC compilation
NOTE: Rental universe = Privately initiated rental apartment structures
of three units and over
For further information: Catherine Léger, Communications, (514) 475-5165
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