CMHC Housing Outlook Conference
QUÉBEC,
Across the province
As a result of improving global and national economic conditions, Quebec's economy, which has been contracting since the end of 2008, will begin to recover in the latter part of this year. Domestic consumption is already showing signs of growth while fiscal and monetary policy will continue to stimulate the economy. CMCH thus expects the
According to CMHC, 43,000 starts are expected in the province in 2010. Sales of existing homes will surpass the 78,000 mark next year. "In 2009, a weaker economic environment, combined with increased supply of homes in certain market segments, lowered housing construction in
Québec area
Residential construction to remain steady in 2010
A resilient labour market, steady migration, a continued seller's market for existing homes and a still tight rental market, combined with favourable financing conditions for households, will help maintain housing starts volumes above the 5,000-unit mark in 2009 and 2010.
The good economic conditions that have been prevailing in the Québec area for several years boosted the housing market. Household incomes rose significantly in the area, such that Québec had one of the highest income growth rates among the major Canadian CMAs from 2000 to 2005. Property prices also posted notable growth, averaging at 14 per cent per year, from 2002 to 2008. Still, an analysis of the ratio between shelter costs and average household income indicates that the market remains more affordable in the Québec CMA than in the other major urban centres across
As well, increased employment opportunities in the Québec CMA supported the migration of households to the area. This maintained pressure on the rental market, which is one of the tightest in
Despite a small decline of the resale market in 2009 (-5 per cent), conditions remain favourable to sellers and are supporting the upward trend in prices (+7 per cent). For 2010, it is expected that supply will be more abundant, that transactions will increase and that the growth in prices will be less marked (+4 per cent).
The greater housing demand, combined with the limited supply of lots available for residential construction, contributed to the rise in prices on the new home market. This increase is progressively causing some households to turn to less expensive housing types, such as semi-detached houses and condominiums, which are therefore becoming more and more popular.
It is estimated that one of out five people aged 75 years or older lives in a retirement home. Construction of this type recently experienced a surge, with mostly one-bedroom apartments being built, as demand is stronger for such units. Over the coming years, the market potential will grow just slightly, as it is only in 2016 that the population aged 75 years or older will begin to grow more rapidly.
A guided tour
To better analyze the dynamic real estate activity in the Québec metropolitan area, three large sectors were examined: the Centre, the Northern Suburbs and the South Shore. First, the Centre sector has a slightly older population and stands out with a larger share of renter households (54 per cent). With the limited availability of lots, construction has shifted toward higher-density housing types (condominiums and rental dwellings), which have accounted for two thirds of the units started in the last five years. It should also be noted that the Québec Les Rivières zone has been the most active in the Centre sector over the last five years, with 58 per cent of the starts enumerated in this sector.
The Centre sector also shows great diversity. For one thing, there is a significant disparity in rents depending on the zone (
The Northern Suburbs stand out with a larger proportion of homeowner households (69 per cent) and a vast territory. Residential construction has also been more active there, with 45 per cent of all starts enumerated in the CMA in the last five years. Over the same period, this sector was the site of more than half of the single-detached homes started in the CMA. As well, the resale market is more affordable there than in the Centre sector and remains favourable to sellers. Average prices for single-family houses stand at
The South Shore is characterized by a younger population. Residential construction was stronger there from 2005 to 2009 than during the previous five years (2000-2004), as starts reached 5,630 units, versus 5,133. On the resale market, the prices are lower, averaging at
As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions. For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642.
A backgrounder is attached.
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CMHC Housing Market Forecasts: Province of Québec (Fall 2009)
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2004 2005 2006 2007
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Residential Construction
(Starts)
Single Detached (1) 28,871 23,930 21,917 22,177
-17.1 -8.4 1.2
Multi-Family (2) 29,577 26,980 25,960 26,376
-8.8 -3.8 1.6
Total 58,448 50,910 47,877 48,553
-12.9 -6.0 1.4
Resale Market
MLS(R) Sales (3) 70,669 72,670 74,192 83,847
2.8 2.1 13.0
MLS(R) Average Price ($) 167,546 180,529 190,348 202,392
7.7 5.4 6.3
Other indicators
GDP Growth (%) 2.7 1.5 1.7 2.6
Employment Growth (%) 1.4 1.0 1.3 2.3
Total Net Migration (4) 36,189 29,035 28,118 32,698
-19.8 -3.2 16.3
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2008 2009(f) 2010(f)
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Residential Construction
(Starts)
Single Detached (1) 19,778 17,000 18,200
-10.8 -14.0 7.1
Multi-Family (2) 28,123 26,300 24,800
6.6 -6.5 -5.7
Total 47,901 43,300 43,000
-1.3 -9.6 -0.7
Resale Market
MLS(R) Sales (3) 79,402 78,250 78,250
-5.3 -1.5 0.0
MLS(R) Average Price ($) 210,775 218,500 223,750
4.1 3.7 2.4
Other indicators
GDP Growth (%) 1.0 -2.0 2.1
Employment Growth (%) 0.8 -0.7 0.7
Total Net Migration (4) 39,158 43,000 44,500
19.8 9.8 3.5
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Notes: (1) Dwelling for wich all walls are detached
(2) Semi-detached, row or apartment units
(3) Multiple Listing Service (MLS(R))
(4) Sum of net international migration, net interprovincial
migration and net non-permanent residents
Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association, Statistics Canada, CMHC;
(f) CMHC forecasts
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Note : 2010 housing starts forecast range : 34,150 to 49,950 units.
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Forecast Summary - Fall 2009
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Single-
Total detached MLS(R) Rental Ave-
Major housing housing MLS(R) average vacancy rage
Centres Year starts starts sales price rate rent
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Gatineau 2008 3,304 1,120 4,390 187,039 1.9 677
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2009(F) 3,000 950 4,400 194,550 2.1 690
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2010(F) 3,000 900 4,400 199,400 2.4 705
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Montréal 2008 21,927 6,602 40,441 259,033 2.4 659
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2009(F) 18,300 5,100 40,100 271,000 2.1 668
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2010(F) 18,100 5,400 40,500 279,000 2.4 675
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Québec 2008 5,457 2,031 7,838 196,839 0.6 653
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2009(F) 5,025 1,725 7,450 210,000 0.6 663
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2010(F) 5,000 1,600 7,700 218,000 0.8 673
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Saguenay 2008 869 400 1,557 139,043 1.6 518
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2009(F) 515 315 1,450 144,000 1.8 525
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2010(F) 800 290 1,525 150,000 1.8 530
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Sherbrooke 2008 1,627 802 1,864 179,434 2.8 543
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2009(F) 1,565 700 1,870 186,600 3.0 555
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2010(F) 1,345 720 1,950 194,000 3.1 565
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Trois- 2008 1,148 373 1,061 132,987 1.7 505
Rivières -------------------------------------------------------------
2009(F) 900 350 1,030 137,000 1.8 520
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2010(F) 1,200 320 1,080 140,000 2.0 530
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Quebec 2008 47,901 19,778 79,402 210,775 s.o. s.o.
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2009(F) 43,300 17,000 78,250 218,500 s.o. s.o.
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2010(F) 43,000 18,200 78,250 223,750 s.o. s.o.
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n/a: Not applicable
MLS(R) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association
(CREA).
Sources: CMHC, Canadian Real Estate Association, Statistics Canada, CMHC
Forecast 2009-2010
Source for Quebec CMA's MLS(R) data: The Quebec Federation of Real Estate
Boards by Centris(TM), CMHC compilation
NOTE: Rental universe = Privately initiated rental apartment
structures of three units and over
For further information: Caroline Léger, Communications, (514) 475-5165
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