Ford Leads Toronto Mayoral Race but Smitherman Closing Gap

HIGHLIGHTS:

• George Smitherman is closing in on frontrunner Rob Ford (44% vs. 38% for Smitherman, up from 22% in early September 2010).
• George Smitherman has made significant gains in North York (42%, up from 20%) and Etobicoke-York (39%, up from 14%).
• When decided / leaning Joe Pantalone supporters were asked who they would back if Pantalone withdrew, the race becomes much closer (Rob Ford at 49%, George Smitherman 48% and 3% supporting others).

TORONTO, Oct. 15 /CNW/ - A new poll focusing on Toronto's Mayoral campaign finds that the race is tightening up as former Deputy Premier George Smitherman closes the gap with frontrunner Rob Ford. Among decided or leaning voters, 44% chose Rob Ford (up from 34% in early September, 2010) compared to 38% picking George Smitherman (up from 22%). This suggests that Smitherman has picked up the lion's share of Sarah Thomson and Rocco Rossi supporters after Thomson and Rossi announced their withdrawals from the race. Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone (16%, up from 11%) was trailing and 2% of residents selected someone else (16% of voters remain undecided).

Rob Ford maintains a stranglehold in Scarborough (53%, compared to 30% for George Smitherman) while George Smitherman has made significant gains in North York (42%, up from 20%), Etobicoke-York (39%, up from 14%). The race remains neck-and-neck in Toronto East York (39% for Smitherman compared to 38% for Ford).  

Older Toronto voters were more likely to support Rob Ford, 18-34 (41%), 35-49 (43%), and 50+ (49%). Support for Rob Ford was also higher among male voters (50% male, 39% female).

When decided / leaning voters supporting Joe Pantalone were asked who they would back if Pantalone withdrew, the race becomes much closer with Rob Ford at 49%, George Smitherman at 48% and 3% supporting others.

The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on a telephone survey of 700 randomly selected Toronto residents, conducted on October 14^th, 2010. Results are considered accurate +/- 4%, 19 times out of 20. This poll was conducted independently by Forum Research Inc. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures the opinions of Toronto residents who plan to vote at one point in time.

With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country's leading survey research firms.

The key questions covered in the recent poll concerned:

Mayoral Voting Intentions - Decided / Leaning

"If the election for the Mayor of Toronto was held today, which candidate are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, who would you be leaning towards at this time?"

Rob Ford - 44%
George Smitherman - 38%
Joe Pantalone - 16%
Someone Else - 2%
(Undecided) - (16%)

Race without Pantalone

"If the election for the Mayor of Toronto was held today, which candidate are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, who would you be leaning towards at this time? + "And, If Joe Pantalone withdrew from the election, who would you vote for if the candidates for mayor were?'

Rob Ford - 49%
George Smitherman - 48%
Someone Else - 3%
(Undecided) - (18%)

The complete poll results will be posted shortly at: www.forumresearch.com/mediacenter

For further information:

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D.
President
Forum Research Inc.
Tel:     [phone]
Fax:    [phone]
e-mail: [email protected]