After many years of receiving the highest salary increases in Canada, workers in the oil and gas sector are now projected to receive the lowest pay increases in an overall environment marked by caution and restraint.
NOTE: Projections include those organizations reporting 0%.
TORONTO, Aug. 26, 2015 /CNW/ - Canadians can expect to see average base salary increases of 2.4% in 2016, according to a national survey of over 525 Canadian public and private sector employers conducted by Hay Group in June and July. Survey participants include many of Canada's leading employers.
The 2.4% projection is lower than the 2.6% projection for 2015, continuing a downward trend in Canadian salary increases that has developed since the start of the economic downturn in 2008/2009. U.S. salary projections remain the same as for 2015 (3.0%), and Canadians have now fallen further behind their U.S. counterparts.
According to the survey, 70% of Canadian employers are forecasting that they will provide their employees with base salary increases in 2016, which is significantly less than the 83% of employers who projected increases for 2015. This is due to continued economic uncertainty across many sectors in the Canadian economy and to the fact that more employers are now adopting a "wait and see" position before increasing their budgets.
Resource-based provinces now behind the rest of Canada
Due to the high demand for skilled labour, workers in the oil and gas sector have traditionally received the highest salary increases in Canada, however, with the economic impact of collapsing oil prices over the last year, these workers are now projected to receive the lowest increases in the country at 1.5% as employers shed jobs and the labour supply now exceeds demand.
Credit unions (3.0%), Leisure/hospitality (3.0%) and insurance (2.9%) will lead all sectors with forecasts higher than the national average of 2.4%.
Saskatchewan (2.7%) and Alberta (2.5%) still lead the country with projected overall base salary increases higher than the national average (2.4%). However they are significantly lower than in recent years, due mainly to the global softening in commodity prices, particularly in the Alberta oil and gas sector. Unless there is an unforeseen jump in demand from the major oil and gas importing economies e.g. China, the EU or a choking off of supply by OPEC, principally through Saudi Arabia, then this year's results will turn from a blip into the new norm for Alberta.
| Province |
2016 projection |
2015 projection |
2014 projection |
2013 projection |
2012 projection |
2011 projection |
| BC |
2.3% |
2.6% |
2.3% |
2.7% |
2.5% |
2.4% |
| Alberta |
2.5% |
3.1% |
3.2% |
3.6% |
3.4% |
2.9% |
| Saskatchewan |
2.7% |
2.9% |
3.4% |
3.2% |
3.2% |
3.3% |
| Manitoba |
2.5% |
2.3% |
2.6% |
2.7% |
2.5% |
2.7% |
| Ontario |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.7% |
2.7% |
2.4% |
| Quebec |
2.5% |
2.6% |
2.6% |
2.7% |
2.8% |
2.7% |
| Maritimes |
1.9% |
2.1% |
2.1% |
2.6% |
2.4% |
2.7% |
| Newfoundland |
2.3% |
2.6% |
4.0% |
3.4% |
3.4% |
3.5% |
| GTA |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.8% |
2.7% |
2.5% |
Looking at the 2016 projections for major Canadian cities, workers in Edmonton are projected to receive increases of 2.9%, followed by Regina at (2.6%) and the GTA, Saskatoon, Winnipeg and Ottawa at 2.5%.
Other findings
- For all organizations, actual base salary changes realized in 2015 was 2.2%, lower than the 2.6% projected in the survey as the economic performance across Canada has not lived up to predictions
- By job level, most positions will be at or above the national average of 2.4%. Only unionized clerical/operations positions will see average increases (2.2%) below the national average.
- Saskatchewan (2.7%) shows the highest 2016 base salary projections, followed by Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec at 2.5%
- Alberta's projection (2.5%) is down from last year's projection of 3.1%, showing the impact of the economic decline from the collapsing oil prices
- Manitoba's projection (2.5%) is an increase from the 2.3% projected for 2015
- BC's projection (2.3%) falls below the national average of 2.4%.
- No change to the Ontario and the GTA projections of 2.5%
- Quebec's projection (2.5%) declined from 2.6% for 2015 and Maritimes (1.9%) declined from 2.1%.
- Projections for countries such as U.S. (3.0%) U.K. and Australia (2.5%), and Canada (2.4%) continue to lag behind those for India (10.8%), Brazil (7.0%) and China (preliminary results show 7.6%).
Details of the survey results will be released at a series of breakfast presentations being held in major cities across Canada in September. Visit www.haygroup.com/ca/events for more detail.
Hay Group is a global management consulting firm that works with leaders to transform strategy into reality. We develop talent, organize people to be more effective and motivate them to perform at their best. Our focus is on making change happen and helping people and organizations realize their potential.
We have over 4000 employees working in 87 offices in 49 countries. Our insight is supported by rigorous data from over 100 countries. Our clients are from the private, public and not-for-profit sectors, across every major industry.
SOURCE Hay Group
Mike Kwiatkowski, Public Relations Consultant, Enterprise Canada, Tel: 1.905.346.1235, Cell: 1.905.650.7474, [email protected]; Sophie Fleming, Senior Consultant, Hay Group, Tel: 416.815.6441, [email protected]; Anne Heber, Marketing Coordinator, Hay Group, Telephone 416.815.6450, [email protected]
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