– The QFREB reveals its forecasts for 2018 –
L'ÎLE-DES-SŒURS, QC, Dec. 7, 2017 /CNW Telbec/ - As part of the 7th annual Fenêtre sur le marché conference, the Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB) unveiled its outlook for the province's 2018 residential real estate market. While the market is heading towards a new sales record this year, according to our most recent forecasts we believe this record will be broken yet again in 2018. The number of sales concluded through the real estate brokers' Centris® system is well on its way to reaching a new high of 82,600 this year (+6 per cent), and we expect to see another increase in sales (+3 per cent) next year, shattering the threshold of 85,000 transactions for the very first time.
"Despite the anticipated rise in interest rates and the additional tightening of mortgage rules – this time for mortgages with a loan-to-value ratio of less than 80 per cent – the demand for housing will be strong, stimulated by job creation, migration and consumer confidence," said Paul Cardinal, Manager of the QFREB's Market Analysis Department.
Indeed, Québec's job market has gained exceptional momentum. Some 150,000 jobs have been added to the province's economy over the past 24 months, bringing the unemployment rate to a record low. Also, net migration and the net number of non-permanent residents are on the rise. And finally, consumer confidence in Québec is at a 15-year high. These are all factors that will stimulate the demand for housing next year.
As for the median price of single-family homes, which will increase by 4 per cent in 2017, the QFREB anticipates that it will rise by 3 per cent in 2018 to reach $251,000.
| 2018 FORECASTS - Province of Québec |
||||
| Number of sales |
Median price – single-family |
|||
| Variation |
Variation |
|||
| 2016 (actual) |
78,145 |
+5% |
$234,500 |
+2% |
| 2017 (projection*) |
82,600 |
+6% |
$243,000 |
+4% |
| 2018 (forecast) |
85,400 |
+3% |
$251,000 |
+3% |
| *Projection based on first 11 months |
The QFREB also predicts that the rate for five-year mortgages offered by Canada's main financial institutions will increase by 0.25 to 0.50 per cent by the end of 2018.
Montréal Area Stands Out From the Rest of the Province
Like we are seeing this year, the QFREB anticipates that residential sales in 2018 will increase more significantly in the Montréal metropolitan area. In 2017, sales are well on their way to registering an 8 per cent increase, and in 2018 we expect the increase to be in the order of 5 per cent.
"For the first time in history, we should surpass 45,000 sales in the city," said Mr. Cardinal. "The condominium segment will be particularly strong," he added.
| 2018 FORECASTS – Montréal Metropolitan Area |
||||||
| Number of sales |
Median price – single-family |
Median price – condominium |
||||
| Variation |
Variation |
Variation |
||||
| 2016 (actual) |
39,862 |
+5% |
$295,000 |
+2% |
$240,000 |
+1% |
| 2017 (projection*) |
42,800 |
+8% |
$315,000 |
+7% |
$247,000 |
+3% |
| 2018 (forecast) |
45,100 |
+5% |
$332,000 |
+5% |
$255,000 |
+3% |
| *Projection based on first 11 months |
In terms of prices, growth will be stronger in Montréal as well, as it currently has the tightest market conditions in the province: it is a seller's market for single-family homes and plexes, while conditions are more balanced for condominiums. This results in more upward pressure on prices and faster selling times.
Finally, the lion's share of the new jobs created in Québec in the last 24 months were in the Montréal area, with more than 115,000 additional jobs. It is also important to point out that the vast majority of immigrants to Québec choose to settle in the Montréal area, which creates new housing needs, a phenomenon that should continue next year.
About the Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards
The Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards is a non-profit organization composed of Québec's 12 real estate boards and the close to 13,000 real estate brokers who are their members. Its mission is to support Québec's real estate boards in order to defend, protect and promote the interests of real estate brokers through the provision of services in the areas of professional practices, public affairs and market analysis. The QFREB is guided by an approach that is centred on collaboration and resource sharing.
About Centris®
Centris.ca is Québec's real estate industry website for consumers, grouping all properties for sale by a real estate broker under the same address. Société Centris® provides real estate industry stakeholders with access to real estate data and a wide range of technology tools. Centris® also manages the collaboration system used by more than 13,000 real estate brokers in Québec.
SOURCE Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards
Jacynthe Alain, Assistant Manager, Communications and Public Relations, Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards, Cell: 514-647-8249, [email protected]
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