New Atlantic Momentum Index reveals unprecedented growth -- and challenges

OTTAWA, ON, Oct. 9, 2024 /CNW/ - The Public Policy Forum (PPF) today released its 2024 Atlantic Canada Momentum Index, highlighting a region experiencing unprecedented growth while grappling with the challenges that accompany rapid expansion.

The report, called Adjusting the Sails: 2024 Atlantic Canada Momentum Index, makes a convincing case that Atlantic Canada is showing momentum across a range of indicators, including the macro economy, the labour market, human capital, innovation and investment, and quality of life. "Every sailor knows the old saying: We can't direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails," the report notes. "Atlantic Canada is in the biggest boom since the Second World War, but it won't last forever. In the last decade, social and demographic shifts as unpredictable as the wind have come from every compass point in Atlantic Canada — and it's clear political and economic leaders need to trim the sails if the region is to maintain its momentum."

Indicators showing momentum in Atlantic Canada are: Real GDP; real GDP per capita; real exports; population; median age; immigration; youth not in Education, Employment and Training (NEET); proportion of population with tertiary education; employment rate; labour productivity; Business Expenditure in Research and Development (BERD) spending; greenhouse gas emissions; Gini coefficient; housing starts; poverty rate.

However, the strong momentum outlined in last year's index has slowed as the region works to adapt to the challenges that come with boom times and unprecedented population growth. Momentum remains positive, but it is more tentative now. 

Of the 25 indicators chosen for this study, 15 exhibit momentum (60 percent), down from the year before, when 16 of 20 indicators (80 percent) showed momentum. (After consultations, PPF added five indicators this year to create an even more complete picture of the economy and the areas requiring attention. The new indicators are: poverty rate; greenhouse gas emissions; housing affordability; investment in renewable energy; and the participation rate of women with children under age six.)

Key findings from the 2024 index include:

• Strong population growth, with the region adding 169,156 new residents between 2019 and 2023;
• Surging immigration, with 60,000 newcomers arriving over the past two years;
• Significant economic activity and growing diversity in urban areas within an hour's drive of the Halifax-Montreal corridor; 
• Increasing concern around some sluggish indicators. As the report says: "Business investment is low and there is not enough housing or health care for those productive knowledge workers that the region has been so delighted to welcome"; and
• A slight lag in Atlantic Canada momentum vs. the national average, where 17 out of 25 indicators exhibit momentum.

The report emphasizes the need for a shift in thinking among policymakers and community leaders. Donald Savoie, professor at Université de Moncton, is quoted in the report saying, "We need to understand that our situation has shifted so quickly that time-tested approaches may no longer serve us well."

The Public Policy Forum urges a concerted and coordinated effort to better spur and manage growth, ensuring that the current momentum is not merely a post-pandemic anomaly but a sustainable trend for Atlantic Canada's future prosperity. PPF is embarking on a series of roundtables within Atlantic Canada to help chart the way forward.

"We've been encouraged by the positive momentum we have seen in Atlantic Canada over the past several years, as is reflected in this year's index," said Edward Greenspon, PPF President and CEO. "To sustain and build it to really deliver the goods for Atlantic Canadians required good strategy and hard work. PPF Is dedicated to working with our friends and partners on getting it right."

The report includes data analysis and an extensive database constructed by the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, quantifying a feeling of momentum experienced on the ground in Atlantic Canada as the basis for further action.

SOURCE Public Policy Forum

For more information, please contact: Alison Uncles, Vice-President, Media + Communications, Public Policy Forum, [email protected]