Olympics to bring gold to Vancouver's economy in 2010
"Only four Canadian cities posted economic growth of any kind in 2009 -Halifax, Saint John,
"
Vancouver's economy declined by 1.8 per cent in 2009, due to declining manufacturing output and faltering construction activity. The housing market started to rally in the second half of the year, and builders are expected to break ground on twice as many homes this year as in 2009. With economic growth of 4.5 per cent,
Improving manufacturing prospects are also expected to lead to growth of 3.3 per cent this year in Kitchener.
Four CMAs - Oshawa and Ottawa-Gatineau in Ontario, and
After two years of declining GDP, Oshawa's economy will benefit from the worldwide recovery now underway, especially in its key auto manufacturing industry. Housing starts are expected to double from 2009 levels, which will boost the construction sector.
Edmonton's economy declined in 2009 for the first time since 1991, and even though overall growth will rebound in 2010, the outlook for the job market remains modest. Housing starts have some ways to go before achieving a full recovery, but population growth continues to be steady in the CMA, which bodes well for residential construction over the medium term.
Ottawa-Gatineau underwent a mild contraction last year, but still posted one of the better results in the country. In 2010, the high-tech sector should rebound modestly, while consumer spending already started to increase in the second half of 2009 and should continue to do so through this year. The federal government is expected to contribute to the CMA's growth in 2010. However, a sizeable budget deficit is increasing the probability of softer growth in federal government spending over the medium term, which represents a risk to the outlook.
After two red-hot years, Saskatoon's economy suffered a temporary reversal in 2009, yet employment continued to grow. Buoyed by strong population increases, the economy should return to a steadier and more sustainable pace of growth in 2010.
Growth Returns in Western CMAs
After two years of falling output, Abbotsford's economy is expected to grow by 3.1 per cent, thanks to a rebound in the manufacturing sector, a better year for housing starts, and a turnaround in retail sales brought on by improved consumer confidence.
Last year,
Improved retail sales and stronger housing demand - starts are expected to rise more than 66 per cent over last year - are the key factors responsible for real GDP growth of 2.8 per cent in Victoria.
Growth in Regina's economy is expected to accelerate to 2.8 per cent this year, up from 0.1 per cent in 2009. The allure of a strong job market continues to draw more newcomers to Regina.
Winnipeg's steady economy avoided recession in 2009, and will grow by 2.5 per cent this year.
Hard-hit Ontario CMAs Start to Rebound in 2010
Hamilton's economy is expected to grow by 3 per cent in 2010, the first gain in output since 2007. The manufacturing and construction downturns in the CMA appears to have hit bottom - in fact, manufacturing output is expected to grow for the first time in eight years.
Following a decline of 6 per cent in 2009 (the largest among the 27 CMAs in the outlook), Windsor's economy can expect to grow for the first time in four years. An improved auto outlook and a combination of higher housing starts and non-residential projects will lead to growth of 2.6 per cent in 2010.
Sudbury is forecast to post growth of 2.6 per cent in 2010. The outlook is at risk, however, given that the labour unrest at Vale Inco is still not resolved.
Although Kingston posted its worst economic performance on record in 2009, the economy has been improving since the third quarter of last year. The CMA's public sector, which sheltered Kingston from the full effects of the recession, is expected to remain strong, helping the economy to grow by 2.5 per cent.
With real GDP growth of 2.5 per cent in 2010,
St. Catharines-Niagara is forecast to post growth in manufacturing output for the first time in a decade, and the housing market should emerge in 2010 from five years of decline. All in all, the CMA's economy is forecast to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2010.
Thunder Bay's economy will emerge from four years of declining GDP with a tepid growth rate of 0.8 per cent, the slowest among the 27 CMAs in the Metropolitan Outlook. Although the "old" economy (particularly forestry) continues to struggle, diversification into medical technologies is expected to start paying off.
Steady Growth in
Montreal's economy declined for the first time since 1991 last year. Fortunately, activity began to rebound in the third quarter of 2009, and the pace of growth in most sectors is forecast to accelerate in 2010, producing real GDP growth of 2.5 per cent for the year as a whole. Job growth will recover enough to erase the CMA's overall employment losses recorded in 2009.
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Trois-Rivières suffered its biggest economic loss in 13 years in 2009, but still ranked in the top 10 among Canadian CMAs last year. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 2.1 per cent in 2010, led by a recovery in manufacturing and solid non-residential construction activity.
Saguenay's economy will increase for the first time in three years, with the Conference Board calling for growth of 1.4 per cent in 2010. However, employment in the CMA is expected to remain flat for the next two years.
Atlantic Cities Avoid Boom and Bust Cycles
Atlantic
Saint John posted positive growth in 2009 thanks to a solid performance by the services sector, leading to a 4.4 per cent increase in employment. Although job growth is expected to stall this year, higher government spending will boost services output, leading to real GDP growth of 1.9 per cent.
Domestic demand remained resilient in
The Metropolitan Outlook, published quarterly by the Conference Board's Centre for Municipal Studies, contains a medium-term economic forecast for 27 Canadian CMAs, as well as the provinces and
For further information: Brent Dowdall, Media Relations, Tel.: (613) 526-3090 ext. 448, E-mail: [email protected]
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