Polimeter Trudeau 3.0: a record of 578 promises to track
QUÉBEC CITY, June 7, 2022 /CNW Telbec/ - The Polimeter team of the Centre for Public Policy Analysis (CAPP) and the Leadership Chair in the Teaching of Digital Social Sciences (CLESSN) at Université Laval announced today the launch of the Trudeau Polimeter 3.0. The Polimeter team identified a record number of 578 promises from the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) platform, Moving Forward Together, and from LPC press releases issued during the 2021 election campaign. This is a sharp increase from the 353 promises made during the Trudeau team's first campaign in 2015 and the 343 promises made during the 2019 election campaign.
Five months into its third term, Justin Trudeau's government has kept fully (13%) or partially (3%) 16% of the promises made during the fall 2021 election. This is 12 points higher than the result for the same period during his previous term. Currently, 22% of Justin Trudeau's Liberal promises are in progress, 60% remain unfulfilled and 2% have been broken.
"Thanks to the March 2022 agreement between the Liberal government and the NDP, but also because of the unpopularity of the government's last election call, this minority government could be more stable and sustainable than the previous one. This would increase the prospects of a better record than Trudeau 2.0, a minority government that lasted less than two years and broke 48% of its promises," said Alexandre Fortier-Chouinard, a Polimeter research assistant and doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Toronto.
"This is the first time we will be tracking the delivery of promises by a minority government with such an agreement. According to studies on promise fulfillment, this should be more successful than a minority government with no agreement. On the other hand, rising inflation, the war in Ukraine and its impact on NATO, and the potential for a 7th wave of COVID-19 may cause this government to rethink some of its priorities," he adds.
The distribution of promises by public policy area provides insight into the priorities of the third Liberal government: "environment" (148 promises, 25.6%), "minorities" (112 promises, 19.3%), "economy and employability" (72 promises, 12.4%), and "health and social services" (62 promises, 10.7%), followed by "international relations and defence" (53 promises, 9.2%) and "law and order" (51 promises, 8.8%). No promises are classified in the domains of "government and democracy" and "identity and nationalism."
"The major themes of this 3rd Liberal government of Justin Trudeau as revealed by these election commitments are social justice and inclusion, reconciliation with Aboriginal peoples, fighting climate change and a green economic recovery, as well as expanding the federal government's role in health care," notes Lisa Birch, executive director of the CAPP. "In social justice, there are promises for Aboriginal people, Black people, and people with disabilities, women, the LGBTQ+ community and linguistic minorities. Even the economic promises have a social solidarity component, including employment insurance reform, improved labour rights and measures to address the affordable housing crisis."
The health promises signal this government's commitment to strengthening the federal role and expanding the health care system to include more mental health care. "The agreement between the Liberal government and the New Democratic Party promotes pledge fulfillment in these areas and will expand the health care system by adding universal drug coverage and creating a dental plan for low-income Canadians, thus fulfilling two key New Democratic promises that were absent from the 2021 Liberal platform," adds Lisa Birch, who is also an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at Université Laval.
To follow the evolution of this third Trudeau government and compare it to other governments, visit the web application available at https://www.polimeter.org/en/trudeau
SOURCE Université Laval
For information and interviews: Lisa Birch, Executive Director, Centre for Public Policy Analysis (CAPP), Faculty of Social Sciences, Université Laval, 418-609-3920, [email protected]; Source: Public Affairs Team, Université Laval, 418-656-3355, [email protected]
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