Québec's Residential Real Estate Market: Return to Growth in 2015

ÎLE-DES-SŒURS, QC, Jan. 15, 2015 /CNW Telbec/ - According to the latest forecasts from the Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB), the province's residential real estate market will experience a slight increase in activity in 2015. The number of sales concluded through the real estate brokers' Centris^® system will reach 72,400 transactions in 2015, 2 per cent more than in 2014. This expected increase will follow two years of sales decreases.

The demand for housing in 2015 will be supported by a slight improvement in the labour market, positive net migration and a continuation of very low interest rates. "If interest rates on five-year mortgages increase in 2015, it will be very marginally," said Paul Cardinal, Manager of the QFREB's Market Analysis Department.

In addition, for a third consecutive year, the QFREB expects to see rather timid price increases. The median price of single-family homes in Québec should increase by only 1 per cent in 2015 to reach $230,000. "The year 2015 will be the third year of a soft landing, after price changes of 0 per cent in 2013 and 1 per cent in 2014," added Paul Cardinal. 

The increase in the number of for-sale listings is expected to continue for a fifth year, but at a more moderate pace. Most local real estate markets will remain either balanced or in buyers' territory, as is currently the case.

Montréal Area: First Increase in Five Years

According to the QFREB, residential sales in the Montréal Metropolitan Area will increase in 2015. The QFREB expects there to be 36,700 transactions concluded through a real estate broker, a 3 per cent increase compared to 2014. It will also be the first increase in sales since 2010.

Like its forecast for the province, the QFREB anticipates very moderate price increases in the Montréal area. The median price of single-family homes will reach $286,000 (+1 per cent) in 2015, compared to $282,500 in 2014. As for condominiums, due to the current imbalance, the median price will not increase and will remain at $230,000 across the Montréal Metropolitan Area.

"Since there is already a surplus of inventory on the resale market, and because the supply of new condominiums remains high and demand is less robust, the condominium market will not become rebalanced in 2015," said Paul Cardinal.

Overall, the condominium market will remain a buyers' market, while the single-family home and plex markets will be more balanced.

2015 FORECASTS
		Number of sales		Median Price – Single-family
			Variation		Variation
Province of Québec
	2014(actual)	70,686	-1%	$227,000	1%
	2015(forecast)	72,400	2%	$230,000	1%
Montréal Metropolitan Area
	2014(actual)	35,764	-2%	$282,500	1%
	2015(forecast)	36,700	3%	$286,000	1%
Source and forecasts: QFREB

 

About the Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards

The Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards is a non-profit organization composed of Québec's 12 real estate boards and the more than 13,000 real estate brokers who are their members. Its mission is to promote and protect the interests of Québec's real estate industry so that the boards and their members can successfully meet their business objectives.

SOURCE Fédération des chambres immobilières du Québec

Manon Stébenne, Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards, Tel.: [phone], ext. 157, [email protected]; Josée Labrie, Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards, Tel.: [phone], ext. 222, [email protected]