ROSSI'S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE 2010 MAYORAL RACE IS NO GAME CHANGER - FORD STILL
AHEAD

TORONTO, Oct. 15 /CNW/ - With Rocco Rossi pulling out of the Toronto mayoral race, the electorate is effectively left with three serious contenders.  A recent poll conducted by TNS Canada suggests that Rob Ford retains his leadership position under this new scenario.

When those supporting Rocco Rossi are redistributed to their second choice candidate, Ford maintains the lead among total eligible voters with 36% support, followed by Smitherman at 23% and Pantalone at 12%.  Approximately 32% of eligible voters remain undecided, suggesting that there is still a great deal of ground to fight for in the closing days of the campaign.

However, the battle is still likely to be an uphill one for Smitherman.  The TNS survey also investigated the effect of a withdrawal of Rossi on the preferences of decided and undecided eligible voters. The Rossi withdrawal has no effect on the relative position of the two leading candidates; among voters decided on, or leaning towards one candidate, Smitherman support increases to 27%, and Pantalone to 12% while Ford support rises to 40%.  Approximately 19% of eligible voters express no real leaning or preference at the present time.

Anyone but Ford

As the "Anyone but Ford" movement has emerged, speculation has also begun as to whether a withdrawal by both Rossi and Pantalone would allow Smitherman to narrow the gap with Ford. There is some evidence for this, but while a withdrawal by both Rossi and Pantalone boosts Smitherman support to 32% overall (42% among voters with a stated preference), it lifts Ford support to 42% (55% among voters with a stated preference).  Part of the reason Smitherman does not garner more lift from these withdrawals stems from the fact that much of the anti-Ford vote is already lodged with him; 30% of Smitherman supporters cite stopping Ford as the primary reason for their choice of candidate. And, in fact, the Smitherman camp appears to have established some urgency to vote among its supporters precisely for this reason.  However,  Ford still "wins" among those who claim that they will "definitely vote" on October 25^th and there is little reserve support for Smitherman among those less committed, meaning there is little to be gained by Smitherman through further efforts to "get out the vote" to stop Rob Ford.

Protest and Vision

Rob Ford has been successful at galvanizing attention to the single issue of fiscal responsibility and tying this to existing grievances against the status quo at city hall and mainstream politicians. This leaves others to define a coherent vision of the future that will resonate with the electorate.  Establishing such a vision has evidently been difficult to achieve.  Indeed, it would appear that Ford's candidacy and core message represent the defining themes of this race to date, leaving little room for other candidates to carve out their own turf. Recent thinning of the playing field may leave Smitherman more room to do so, however.  The survey results indicate that he has credibility on the issue of city finances and room to maneuver on issues related to transit, infrastructure and services.  In the final stretch of the campaign, the key for Smitherman may be to provide voters with a strong rationale for choosing George Smitherman as opposed to voting against Rob Ford.

Red States and Blue States

A sharp divide exists between residents of the old city of Toronto (or core), and those of the surrounding suburban ring.  Among decided voters choosing candidates still in the race, Ford actually trails Smitherman by a small margin in the city core (39% vs. 41%).  However, in the outer ring, Ford support rises to 59%, with Smitherman support trailing distantly at 30%.  Part of Ford's success among residents in the outer ring can be traced to their preoccupation with city finances, Ford's signature issue. Among voters decided on, or leaning towards one candidate, 43% of those in the suburban ring indicate that management of the city's finances is the most important issue underlying their candidate selection, compared with just 26% among residents of the city core.

The Implication

Given these results, Smitherman can certainly still challenge Ford by making strong inroads among female voters and the young (the groups most likely to be undecided at the present time) on issues related to transit, infrastructure and the preservation of key services through responsible financial management.  Unless Smitherman can manufacture such a scenario soon, it appears to be Ford's race to lose.

The fieldwork for this project was conducted using TNS Canada's online panel.  A total of 605 Canadian adults eligible to vote in Toronto's mayoral race were interviewed between October 4th and 8th, 2010.  TNS Canadian Facts (www.tns-cf.com) is one of Canada's leading full-service marketing, opinion and social research organizations.

About TNS

TNS, recently merged with Research International and is the world's largest custom research agency delivering actionable insights and research-based business advice to its clients so they can make more effective business decisions. TNS offers comprehensive industry knowledge within the Consumer, Technology, Finance, Automotive and Political & Social sectors, supported by a unique product offering that stretches across the entire range of marketing and business issues, specializing in product development & innovation, brand & communication, stakeholder management, retail & shopper, and qualitative research. Delivering best-in-class service across more than 70 countries, TNS is part of the Kantar Group. Please visit www.tnsglobal.com for more information.

About Kantar

Kantar is one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy networks. By uniting the diverse talents of its 13 specialist companies, the group aims to become the pre-eminent provider of compelling and inspirational insights for the global business community. Its 26,500 employees work across 95 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at each and every point of the consumer cycle. The group's services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies.

For further information:

Media Contacts:

Michael Ennamorato (Primary Contact for This Press Release)
Managing Director
TNS Canada
Tel: [phone]
e-mail: [email protected]

Dr. Michael Antecol
Vice President
TNS Canada
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e-mail: [email protected]