Shifting sands: Alberta's economy in 2025 and 2026
ATB Financial Quarterly Economic Outlook
EDMONTON, AB, Dec. 18, 2024 /CNW/ - Alberta's economy is poised for continued growth in 2025 and 2026, but faces heightened geopolitical uncertainty according to ATB Financial's latest economic outlook. The economy is entering 2025 with momentum driven by robust oil production, surging home construction, and a recent jump in employment. At the same time, the province is navigating rising unemployment as more job seekers come to Alberta and persistent cost-of-living challenges.
ATB Financial's latest economic outlook projects Alberta's GDP to outpace the national economy, growing by 2.5 per cent in 2025 and 2.3 per cent in 2026. This growth is fueled by strong energy sector performance, emerging sectors like technology and petrochemicals, and continued interprovincial migration. While falling interest rates will support a rebound in consumer spending, trade uncertainty and a slowdown in international migration will create a headwind. As a result, ATB Financial has lowered its GDP growth forecast from its October outlook, which had projected 2.8 per cent growth in 2025 and 2.5 per cent in 2026.
Given the uncertainty, ATB Financial has prepared alternate scenarios, including the potential impact of escalating trade tensions that could hinder business investment and economic growth. The upside includes minimal trade actions and more major projects proceeding.
"Alberta's economy has been resilient in 2024 and has momentum heading into the new year, but we're entering a period of heightened uncertainty," says ATB Financial Chief Economist, Mark Parsons. "After a period of high inflation, the next challenge will be navigating the potential impacts of U.S. tariffs and adjusting to major population shifts."
With $62.3 billion in assets, ATB Financial is a leading financial institution that started in Alberta with the focus of putting people first. Our success comes from our more than 5,000 team members who love to deliver exceptional experiences to nearly 820,000 clients across our Personal and Business Banking, ATB Wealth Management and ATB Capital Markets businesses. ATB provides expert advice, services and products through our many branches and agencies, our 24-hour Client Care Centre, four entrepreneur centres and our digital banking options. ATB powers possibilities for our clients, communities and beyond. ATB is bronze certified as part of the Partnership Accreditation in Indigenous Relations commissioned by the Canadian Council for Indigenous Business. ATB powers possibilities for our clients, communities and beyond. More information about ATB can be found at atb.com.
ATB Financial's Economic Outlook is intended for general information and educational purposes only and should not be considered specific legal, financial, tax or other professional advice or recommendations. Information presented is believed to be reliable and up-to-date but it is not guaranteed to be accurate or a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgement of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. The actual outcome may be materially different. ATB Financial and any of its affiliates are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by ATB Financial or any of its affiliates and related entities.
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SOURCE ATB Financial
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