Developing El Niño conditions expected to have notable effect on fall and winter weather
OAKVILLE, ON, Sept. 9, 2014 /CNW/ - While parts of the country saw their share of hot weather, summer wasn't a scorcher for many Canadians, which has left some wondering if the cooler temperature pattern will continue through the fall. To help answer the question, The Weather Network's meteorologists have released this year's Fall Outlook, forecasting the months of September, October and November. In addition, it's releasing a winter preview giving Canadians a glimpse of what to expect.
The Fall Outlook shows temperature patterns experienced this summer should persist with above normal temperatures expected in B.C., parts of Alberta and southern Nova Scotia and below normal temperatures from the eastern Prairies into Quebec. The Weather Network's meteorologists expect a typical transitional weather pattern over the next three months, but note that some early cold air is already on the map.
"Fall is the season where we usually see the most dramatic temperature and precipitation changes from month to month as we transition towards winter," said Chris Scott, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Network. "We're already seeing that extreme seesaw of temperatures starting to affect southern parts of the country; the wild fall temperature ride is off to an early start."
B.C.
As was the case in the summer, British Columbia is expected to continue experiencing above normal temperatures this fall and near normal precipitation for most of the province.
The Prairies
Most of Alberta and Saskatchewan will experience near normal temperatures and precipitation. East-central Saskatchewan and Manitoba should expect below normal temperatures, with some of these areas seeing above average precipitation.
Central Canada
In Ontario and Quebec, residents should expect a more or less similar continuation of this summer's weather pattern, with generally near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation anticipated this autumn. As is typical for the fall, September into October will have stretches of warm weather nevertheless.
Atlantic Canada
Overall, near normal temperatures are expected for most of the Maritimes and Newfoundland. As the height of Atlantic hurricane season approaches, residents should keep an active lookout for severe weather.
The Weather Network's Winter Preview
Meteorologists are monitoring developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which generally have an impact on late-fall and early winter weather in North America. While El Niño can often mean a warmer winter for Canada, that's not necessarily the case this year. The Weather Network meteorologists are favouring a weak El Niño developing, which could result in a continuation of the patterns experienced this past summer and anticipated for this autumn. If a weak El Niño develops as forecasted, the odds favour winter temperatures to be on the lower side of normal from Manitoba east to Quebec, with British Columbia seeing above normal temperatures.
"El Niño doesn't necessarily equal warm weather for Canada," said Scott. "History tells us that a weak El Niño centred more across the central Pacific can produce colder than normal winters across central and eastern Canada. The possible weak El Niño developing for this winter is one of the key factors our forecast team is monitoring."
The Weather Network will release its complete Winter Outlook in late November with additional details and forecasts for each region.
| The Weather Network's Fall 2014 Outlook |
||
| Region |
Temperature Outlook |
Precipitation Outlook |
| British Columbia |
Above normal except for the extreme north and southeast; where near normal temperatures are expected. |
Above normal for Haida Gwaii, and from the north coast and northern central coast inland to Williston Lake. Below normal in extreme south-central areas. |
| Alberta |
Near normal in most places but above normal in west-central areas and the upper Peace River valley. |
Near normal. |
| Saskatchewan |
Below normal in the east-central regions and southeastern areas. Near normal elsewhere. |
Generally near normal except for east-central portions where above normal precipitation is forecast. |
| Manitoba |
Below normal temperatures forecast in central and southern areas with near normal values in the north. |
Near normal across much of the far south and north. Above normal elsewhere; generally across central and south-central sections. |
| Ontario |
Below normal temperatures in most places. Near normal closer to Hudson Bay, for most of southern Ontario and across eastern Ontario. |
Above normal for the far north; and through southern parts of northeast Ontario southwards across Lake Huron and Algonquin Park. Near normal elsewhere. |
| Québec |
Below normal across much of the interior. Near normal temperatures in south Quebec, down the St Lawrence valley to far eastern parts and across the north. |
Above normal precipitation in much of the province except near normal values across the south down the St Lawrence to far eastern areas; and in the far northwest. |
| The Maritimes and Newfoundland |
Above normal along the southwest New Brunswick coast and across southwest Nova Scotia. Below normal in western Labrador. Near normal elsewhere. |
Near normal precipitation in most areas but above normal in western and northern Labrador. |
| Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut |
Near normal across most of Canada's Far North, but above normal in extreme southwest Yukon and below normal in the north. Also, below normal in northern Northwest Territories and over north-central parts of Nunavut. |
Above normal in much of western NWT and adjacent eastern Yukon; parts of eastern NWT and adjacent Nunavut; and the tip of southeast Baffin Island. Below normal in northwest Nunavut with near normal precipitation elsewhere. |
For a more information about The Weather Network's autumn forecast, please visit www.theweathernetwork.com/outlook.
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SOURCE: The Weather Network
For further information or to arrange an interview with a meteorologist, please contact: Sara Stratton, High Road, 416-644-2258, [email protected]
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