Canadian housing starts essentially held steady in March

OTTAWA, April 8, 2019 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 202,279 units in March 2019, compared to 202,039 units in February 2019, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada (all areas) (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"The national trend in housing starts was essentially unchanged in March, remaining near its historical average," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "The trend has been very stable since the final quarter of 2018, following a period of steady declines from the historically elevated levels registered in recent years. Higher mortgage rates combined with still-favourable, but less stimulative economic conditions have contributed to moderation in demand for new homes in urban centres."

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) housing starts trended higher in March, with multi-family projects getting underway in the City of Vancouver accounting for approximately half of the total for the month. Housing starts recorded in the first quarter were 16% below the total for the same quarter a year ago. While the pace of residential construction remains near its all-time high, slower resale market conditions have encouraged some developers to direct buyers to existing projects prior to starting new units.

Kelowna
Housing starts in the Kelowna CMA declined in March, relative to the same month last year, across both the single-detached and multi-unit segments. However, in the first 3 months of 2019, housing starts were up significantly as a result of strong multi-unit housing starts, particularly a large number of apartment condo units getting underway. Overall, new construction activity continues to be supported by positive fundamentals such as growth in population, employment and income in the Kelowna area.

Calgary
A combination of soft demand and elevated inventory has prompted builders to continue slowing down production. The exception is row starts, which have increased year-over-year by 48% in the first quarter. As economic challenges persist, prospective buyers are seeking more affordable options in the market.

Saskatoon
Total housing starts trended lower in March after the pace of construction activity slowed in the singles and multiples sectors. Across all dwelling types, builders initiated 25% fewer housing units in the first quarter of 2019 than during the same time a year earlier. The largest reduction in homebuilding activity has been in multi-unit production, which was down 44% from one year prior.

Toronto
The Toronto CMA total housing starts trend rose in March as higher trending condominium apartment starts offset the decline in low-rise starts. Rising homeownership costs dampened pre-construction sales for low-rise homes in 2018. Conversely, condominium apartment pre-construction sales remained strong in the last two years given their relative affordability. As a result, condominium apartment starts continue to dominate Toronto CMA new housing construction in 2019.

St. Catharines-Niagara
New home starts in the St. Catharines-Niagara CMA continued their upward trend in March to reach an 11-month high. Significant increases were seen in single-detached and townhome starts. Relatively affordable home prices in St. Catharines-Niagara continue to draw homebuyer demand from neighbouring regions.

Montréal
Just over 5,000 starts were enumerated in the Montréal CMA during the first quarter of 2019—a 10-year high. This brisk pace of activity was attributable to significant apartment construction, particularly in the rental housing segment, as the condominium segment registered a decrease. The low vacancy rates, aging of the population and greater proportion of young households now opting for the rental market continue to stimulate rental housing starts.

Gatineau
In the first quarter of 2019, housing starts in the Gatineau (Québec part of the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA) area recorded a significant gain of 105% over the same period last year. This strong increase was attributable mainly to the rise in rental housing starts. The aging of the population and the low vacancy rate have continued to stimulate starts of this type in Gatineau.

Halifax
Total housing starts in Halifax continue to rapidly expand as construction on the multiples market recorded one of the strongest first quarters on record. Although the number of rental apartment units currently under construction is at a historical high, steady rental demand has pushed year-to-date multiples starts to increase by 143% compared to quarter one of 2018.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 192,527 units in March, up 15.8% from 166,290 units in February. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 17.0% in March to 178,033 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 18.6% to 135,894 units in March while single-detached urban starts increased by 12.1% to 42,139 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 14,494 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
	Single-Detached			All Others			Total
	March 2018	March 2019	%	March 2018	March 2019	%	March 2018	March 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.	13	6	-54	93	1	-99	106	7	-93
P.E.I.	12	2	-83	6	0	-100	18	2	-89
N.S.	99	51	-48	25	304	##	124	355	186
N.B.	7	5	-29	3	2	-33	10	7	-30
Atlantic	131	64	-51	127	307	142	258	371	44
Qc	388	384	-1	2,449	3,502	43	2,837	3,886	37
Ont.	1,458	833	-43	3,435	3,408	-1	4,893	4,241	-13
Man.	180	161	-11	371	246	-34	551	407	-26
Sask.	79	51	-35	24	51	113	103	102	-1
Alta.	801	534	-33	1,091	718	-34	1,892	1,252	-34
Prairies	1,060	746	-30	1,486	1,015	-32	2,546	1,761	-31
B.C.	666	517	-22	3,080	2,080	-32	3,746	2,597	-31
Canada (10,000+)	3,703	2,544	-31	10,577	10,312	-3	14,280	12,856	-10
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission	19	23	21	79	125	58	98	148	51
Barrie	35	5	-86	26	8	-69	61	13	-79
Belleville	13	20	54	6	0	-100	19	20	5
Brantford	32	44	38	4	8	100	36	52	44
Calgary	306	186	-39	525	334	-36	831	520	-37
Edmonton	368	260	-29	280	260	-7	648	520	-20
Greater Sudbury	0	0	-	0	0	-	0	0	-
Guelph	10	13	30	60	0	-100	70	13	-81
Halifax	41	39	-5	16	299	##	57	338	493
Hamilton	19	41	116	58	136	134	77	177	130
Kelowna	53	22	-58	108	21	-81	161	43	-73
Kingston	24	3	-88	4	33	##	28	36	29
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo	102	54	-47	319	63	-80	421	117	-72
Lethbridge	26	16	-38	15	26	73	41	42	2
London	122	74	-39	23	115	400	145	189	30
Moncton	2	3	50	2	0	-100	4	3	-25
Montréal	154	143	-7	1,475	2,434	65	1,629	2,577	58
Oshawa	105	26	-75	66	32	-52	171	58	-66
Ottawa-Gatineau	201	169	-16	241	551	129	442	720	63
Gatineau	23	37	61	32	406	##	55	443	##
Ottawa	178	132	-26	209	145	-31	387	277	-28
Peterborough	8	18	125	0	40	##	8	58	##
Québec	71	43	-39	482	181	-62	553	224	-59
Regina	36	18	-50	6	39	##	42	57	36
Saguenay	6	4	-33	16	2	-88	22	6	-73
St. Catharines-Niagara	45	110	144	120	133	11	165	243	47
Saint John	3	1	-67	0	0	-	3	1	-67
St. John's	10	4	-60	93	0	-100	103	4	-96
Saskatoon	38	31	-18	13	8	-38	51	39	-24
Sherbrooke	28	45	61	118	279	136	146	324	122
Thunder Bay	0	0	-	0	0	-	0	0	-
Toronto	501	98	-80	2,376	2,522	6	2,877	2,620	-9
Trois-Rivières	9	6	-33	10	23	130	19	29	53
Vancouver	326	263	-19	2,319	1,443	-38	2,645	1,706	-36
Victoria	50	51	2	254	126	-50	304	177	-42
Windsor	22	16	-27	8	18	125	30	34	13
Winnipeg	155	135	-13	335	197	-41	490	332	-32
Total	2,940	1,984	-33	9,457	9,456	0	12,397	11,440	-8
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
	Single-Detached			All Others			Total
	February 2019	March 2019	%	February 2019	March 2019	%	February 2019	March 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.	346	373	8	113	43	-62	459	416	-9
P.E.I.	293	81	-72	0	0	-	293	81	-72
N.S.	948	924	-3	2,381	3,732	57	3,329	4,656	40
N.B.	506	522	3	13	156	##	519	678	31
Qc	6,072	6,165	2	27,342	50,129	83	33,414	56,294	68
Ont.	12,473	14,955	20	41,269	43,972	7	53,742	58,927	10
Man.	2,068	2,166	5	2,892	2,952	2	4,960	5,118	3
Sask.	896	900	0	336	612	82	1,232	1,512	23
Alta.	7,184	8,756	22	10,917	9,102	-17	18,101	17,858	-1
B.C.	6,818	7,297	7	29,314	25,196	-14	36,132	32,493	-10
Canada (10,000+)	37,604	42,139	12	114,577	135,894	19	152,181	178,033	17
Canada (All Areas)	47,930	52,853	10	118,360	139,675	18	166,290	192,527	16
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission	303	370	22	1,200	1,500	25	1,503	1,870	24
Barrie	169	212	25	864	96	-89	1,033	308	-70
Belleville	309	643	108	0	0	-	309	643	108
Brantford	253	378	49	168	96	-43	421	474	13
Calgary	2,973	2,899	-2	4,740	4,008	-15	7,713	6,907	-10
Edmonton	3,153	3,778	20	4,596	3,120	-32	7,749	6,898	-11
Greater Sudbury	133	73	-45	0	0	-	133	73	-45
Guelph	82	174	112	2,040	0	-100	2,122	174	-92
Halifax	797	817	3	2,172	3,588	65	2,969	4,405	48
Hamilton	472	495	5	1,476	1,632	11	1,948	2,127	9
Kelowna	223	335	50	96	252	163	319	587	84
Kingston	70	65	-7	0	396	##	70	461	##
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo	849	640	-25	288	756	163	1,137	1,396	23
Lethbridge	93	264	184	528	312	-41	621	576	-7
London	910	1,157	27	276	1,380	400	1,186	2,537	114
Moncton	174	284	63	0	0	-	174	284	63
Montréal	2,149	2,327	8	12,757	28,971	127	14,906	31,298	110
Oshawa	361	355	-2	228	384	68	589	739	25
Ottawa-Gatineau	2,648	3,087	17	8,724	6,612	-24	11,372	9,699	-15
Gatineau	263	618	135	1,464	4,872	233	1,727	5,490	218
Ottawa	2,385	2,469	4	7,260	1,740	-76	9,645	4,209	-56
Peterborough	103	815	##	0	480	##	103	1,295	##
Québec	627	547	-13	996	2,172	118	1,623	2,719	68
Regina	269	236	-12	108	468	333	377	704	87
Saguenay	127	136	7	168	24	-86	295	160	-46
St. Catharines-Niagara	849	1,953	130	1,272	1,596	25	2,121	3,549	67
Saint John	79	88	11	0	0	-	79	88	11
St. John's	239	228	-5	108	0	-100	347	228	-34
Saskatoon	531	625	18	180	96	-47	711	721	1
Sherbrooke	405	492	21	3,492	3,348	-4	3,897	3,840	-1
Thunder Bay	1,435	127	-91	0	0	-	1,435	127	-91
Toronto	3,331	1,936	-42	16,836	30,264	80	20,167	32,200	60
Trois-Rivières	7	125	##	360	276	-23	367	401	9
Vancouver	3,530	3,644	3	21,492	17,316	-19	25,022	20,960	-16
Victoria	537	572	7	3,588	1,512	-58	4,125	2,084	-49
Windsor	327	399	22	504	216	-57	831	615	-26
Winnipeg	1,663	1,668	0	2,304	2,364	3	3,967	4,032	2
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

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