Canadian housing starts trend held steady in January

OTTAWA, Feb. 8, 2019 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 208,131 units in January 2019, compared to 207,171 units in December 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"After recent declines, the national trend in housing starts held steady in January and remained above historical average," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "While single-detached starts continued to trend lower in January, this was offset by an uptick in the trend for multi-unit dwellings in urban centres.

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
The trend measure for housing starts in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) held steady in January 2019 after trending lower in the second half of 2018. The majority of January's starts were concentrated in the apartment condominium segment in the cities of Vancouver and Burnaby, which together accounted for over half of new construction activity for the month.

Kelowna
Total housing starts trended sharply upward in Kelowna for January. Condominium units in the city of Kelowna were the largest share of the uptick with larger projects breaking ground in the first month of 2019. This continued a trend of elevated multi-family construction in the region. However, single detached units also increased slightly.

Lethbridge
Total starts in Lethbridge trended higher in January 2019 compared to the previous month mainly due to the increase in single-detached starts. Multi-family starts declined marginally as the decrease in both row and apartment starts was partially offset by the increase in semi-detached starts.

Saskatoon
The trend measure of total housing starts edged higher in the first month of 2019. Nonetheless, actual total housing starts in January were down 15%, compared to January 2018. The reduction in building activity was entirely due to a sharp decline in multi-family construction while single-detached starts began the year on stronger footing.

Toronto
Toronto CMA total housing starts trend was unchanged from the previous month. Single and semi-detached homes along with condominium apartment starts trended lower. Row starts, conversely, trended significantly higher as strong pre-construction sales towards the latter part of 2018 converted into housing starts. Rising borrowing costs kept pre-construction sales of new homes low, particularly low-rise throughout 2018.  As a result, expect to see even fewer units breaking ground during 2019.

London
Total housing starts in London CMA trended higher due to increased apartment construction while single detached and rows homes starts continuing their downward trend. An increasing number of completed but unsold new single-detached homes resulted in fewer single-detached starts; as builders were able to satisfy demand from existing inventories.

Ottawa
Ottawa housing starts trended lower for all dwelling types in the first month of 2019. Starts this January marked the lowest for the month in over two decades. The number of units under construction in January was historically high, leaving homebuilders with fewer resources to commit to new construction.

Gatineau
In January 2019, housing starts trended lower for the second month in a row for the Gatineau area. However, the number of new rental housing units remains at a high level, as the aging of the population and the low vacancy rate continue to stimulate starts for this type.

Québec CMA
Housing starts activity started off slowly in the Québec CMA, as a result of a decrease in multi-unit segment. Despite this slowdown in January, multi-unit—especially rental—housing construction should stay relatively strong this year. Activity in this market segment is being stimulated in particular by migration and the aging of the population.

New Brunswick
In January 2019, New Brunswick's total housing starts were 33% higher compared to a year ago. The increase was due to multiple-unit starts, which were more than double the number observed in January 2018. On the other hand, construction of single-detached housing has been on a downward trend and the number of starts in January was the lowest for the month in 20 years.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 207,968 units in January, down from 213,630 units in December. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 2.1% in January to 190,912 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 0.7% to 146,353 units in January while single-detached urban starts decreased by 10.4% to 44,559 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,056 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		January 2018	January 2019	%	January 2018	January 2019	%	January 2018	January 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		30	17	-43	19	4	-79	49	21	-57
P.E.I.		8	4	-50	4	45	##	12	49	308
N.S.		135	97	-28	140	157	12	275	254	-8
N.B.		22	12	-45	17	40	135	39	52	33
Atlantic		195	130	-33	180	246	37	375	376	0
Qc		176	125	-29	1,346	1,654	23	1,522	1,779	17
Ont.		1,416	932	-34	4,211	4,081	-3	5,627	5,013	-11
Man.		153	126	-18	140	303	116	293	429	46
Sask.		74	65	-12	331	68	-79	405	133	-67
Alta.		773	598	-23	868	1,070	23	1,641	1,668	2
Prairies		1,000	789	-21	1,339	1,441	8	2,339	2,230	-5
B.C.		747	494	-34	2,512	2,677	7	3,259	3,171	-3
Canada (10,000+)		3,534	2,470	-30	9,588	10,099	5	13,122	12,569	-4
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		27	25	-7	20	32	60	47	57	21
Barrie		23	13	-43	68	0	-100	91	13	-86
Belleville		16	15	-6	58	0	-100	74	15	-80
Brantford		35	5	-86	2	0	-100	37	5	-86
Calgary		325	269	-17	326	431	32	651	700	8
Edmonton		298	211	-29	421	579	38	719	790	10
Greater Sudbury		2	1	-50	0	2	##	2	3	50
Guelph		3	11	267	200	19	-91	203	30	-85
Halifax		51	57	12	104	141	36	155	198	28
Hamilton		42	30	-29	136	302	122	178	332	87
Kelowna		36	49	36	51	268	425	87	317	264
Kingston		12	25	108	12	147	##	24	172	##
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		132	107	-19	567	85	-85	699	192	-73
Lethbridge		28	40	43	12	7	-42	40	47	18
London		59	43	-27	8	226	##	67	269	301
Moncton		6	0	-100	0	2	##	6	2	-67
Montréal		72	64	-11	713	1,358	90	785	1,422	81
Oshawa		56	22	-61	64	19	-70	120	41	-66
Ottawa-Gatineau		138	78	-43	515	171	-67	653	249	-62
Gatineau		18	2	-89	212	62	-71	230	64	-72
Ottawa		120	76	-37	303	109	-64	423	185	-56
Peterborough		25	6	-76	0	0	-	25	6	-76
Québec		22	13	-41	221	94	-57	243	107	-56
Regina		32	18	-44	272	35	-87	304	53	-83
Saguenay		5	2	-60	0	0	-	5	2	-60
St. Catharines-Niagara		47	62	32	66	54	-18	113	116	3
Saint John		7	5	-29	0	37	##	7	42	##
St. John's		27	17	-37	10	2	-80	37	19	-49
Saskatoon		37	44	19	54	33	-39	91	77	-15
Sherbrooke		5	3	-40	18	0	-100	23	3	-87
Thunder Bay		1	0	-100	0	0	-	1	0	-100
Toronto		543	243	-55	2,605	2,942	13	3,148	3,185	1
Trois-Rivières		1	1	-	5	18	260	6	19	217
Vancouver		428	200	-53	2,171	1,867	-14	2,599	2,067	-20
Victoria		55	32	-42	45	202	349	100	234	134
Windsor		19	24	26	7	12	71	26	36	38
Winnipeg		132	113	-14	90	294	227	222	407	83
Total		2,747	1,848	-33	8,841	9,379	6	11,588	11,227	-3
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		December 2018	January 2019	%	December 2018	January 2019	%	December 2018	January 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		394	390	-1	223	50	-78	617	440	-29
P.E.I.		389	103	-74	912	540	-41	1,301	643	-51
N.S.		1,383	1,667	21	3,218	1,936	-40	4,601	3,603	-22
N.B.		628	463	-26	1,805	917	-49	2,433	1,380	-43
Qc		5,983	4,746	-21	38,706	36,889	-5	44,689	41,635	-7
Ont.		18,850	16,558	-12	48,880	55,774	14	67,730	72,332	7
Man.		2,137	1,986	-7	3,564	3,636	2	5,701	5,622	-1
Sask.		1,341	1,265	-6	444	816	84	1,785	2,081	17
Alta.		8,926	9,364	5	9,094	13,304	46	18,020	22,668	26
B.C.		9,721	8,017	-18	38,452	32,491	-16	48,173	40,508	-16
Canada (10,000+)		49,752	44,559	-10	145,298	146,353	1	195,050	190,912	-2
Canada (All Areas)		63,459	56,984	-10	150,169	150,985	1	213,630	207,968	-3
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		474	460	-3	3,096	384	-88	3,570	844	-76
Barrie		251	392	56	0	0	-	251	392	56
Belleville		327	401	23	48	0	-100	375	401	7
Brantford		181	145	-20	744	0	-100	925	145	-84
Calgary		2,915	3,770	29	3,684	5,172	40	6,599	8,942	36
Edmonton		4,051	3,785	-7	3,672	6,948	89	7,723	10,733	39
Greater Sudbury		116	92	-21	48	24	-50	164	116	-29
Guelph		198	196	-1	1,836	228	-88	2,034	424	-79
Halifax		646	1,000	55	2,844	1,692	-41	3,490	2,692	-23
Hamilton		183	467	155	1,428	3,624	154	1,611	4,091	154
Kelowna		730	1,024	40	2,628	3,216	22	3,358	4,240	26
Kingston		301	562	87	2,556	1,764	-31	2,857	2,326	-19
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		1,042	1,500	44	900	1,020	13	1,942	2,520	30
Lethbridge		321	537	67	144	84	-42	465	621	34
London		1,401	1,105	-21	396	2,712	##	1,797	3,817	112
Moncton		158	3	-98	1,260	24	-98	1,418	27	-98
Montréal		2,267	2,316	2	32,735	17,411	-47	35,002	19,727	-44
Oshawa		867	564	-35	648	228	-65	1,515	792	-48
Ottawa-Gatineau		2,603	1,841	-29	3,576	2,052	-43	6,179	3,893	-37
Gatineau		528	51	-90	480	744	55	1,008	795	-21
Ottawa		2,075	1,790	-14	3,096	1,308	-58	5,171	3,098	-40
Peterborough		265	132	-50	156	0	-100	421	132	-69
Québec		490	414	-16	7,824	1,128	-86	8,314	1,542	-81
Regina		343	276	-20	204	420	106	547	696	27
Saguenay		166	124	-25	372	0	-100	538	124	-77
St. Catharines-Niagara		761	1,077	42	1,740	648	-63	2,501	1,725	-31
Saint John		242	124	-49	12	444	##	254	568	124
St. John's		292	354	21	180	24	-87	472	378	-20
Saskatoon		868	916	6	168	396	136	1,036	1,312	27
Sherbrooke		313	132	-58	492	0	-100	805	132	-84
Thunder Bay		166	5	-97	0	0	-	166	5	-97
Toronto		5,379	3,925	-27	31,848	35,304	11	37,227	39,229	5
Trois-Rivières		183	96	-48	984	216	-78	1,167	312	-73
Vancouver		5,418	3,009	-44	19,644	22,404	14	25,062	25,413	1
Victoria		666	488	-27	8,784	2,424	-72	9,450	2,912	-69
Windsor		680	612	-10	96	144	50	776	756	-3
Winnipeg		1,836	1,770	-4	2,520	3,528	40	4,356	5,298	22
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions. Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC ## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

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