Canadian housing starts trend increased in April

OTTAWA, May 8, 2019 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 206,103 units in April 2019, compared to 202,420 units in March 2019, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"The national trend in housing starts increased in April, as higher-trending multi-unit starts offset a continued decline in the trend for single starts, in urban areas," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "The increase in the trend of multi-unit starts reflects a strong recovery in multi-unit SAAR activity in March and April from consecutive declines at the end of 2018 and the first months of 2019."

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) housing starts continued to trend higher in April 2019, despite a year-to-date 2% decline compared to last year, partly due to the slowdown in the single-detached sector. The year-to-date multi-family starts increased by 3% compared to the same period last year. Fifty-three per cent of these projects are located in the cities of Vancouver and Burnaby. As the reduced sales activities continued to allow listings to accumulate, developers have started to focus more on existing projects rather than new construction.  

Kelowna
Housing starts in the Kelowna CMA declined in April, relative to the same month last year, in both the single-detached and multi-unit segments of the market. Additionally, in the first 4 months of 2019, housing starts came in 32% lower relative to the same period in 2018. This was largely due to the persistence of large multi-unit projects getting underway early in 2018 relative to what has been seen so far in 2019. Overall, this moderation in new construction activity is in line with population growth patterns and a growing inventory of unsold units in the existing and new home markets.

Calgary
Calgary CMA housing starts trended slightly higher in April, as row-home starts saw a year-over-year increase of 42% in the first four months in 2019. Although construction activity in the freehold multi and single home sectors continued to slow down as the economy recovers, the year-to-date housing starts in the condo sector has increased by 19% compared to the same period last year, indicating a relatively positive outlook from both buyers and developers in the more affordable housing sector.

Regina
The trend in total housing starts declined for a sixth straight month after local homebuilders significantly scaled back production of single-detached and multi-family units. Homebuilding activity in Regina has continued to slow in 2019 due to higher construction costs and weaker economic conditions. As a result, year-to-date housing starts in the Regina CMA numbered 172 units in April, compared to 546 in the same period of 2018.

Winnipeg
In the Winnipeg CMA, total starts trended higher in April 2019 compared to the previous month, driven by apartment starts which increased by 12%. There were increases across all types of housing units, except row which decreased by 27%. The increase in the demand for housing units resulted in a decrease in the inventory of completed and unsold units.

Toronto
Total housing starts trended slightly lower during April in the Toronto CMA owing mainly to lower trending condominium apartment and single-detached home starts. Strong pre-construction condominium apartment sales over the past two years are likely to be reflected in future housing starts. Declining sales of pre-construction units of single-detached homes during the past year will likely mean fewer starts over the coming months.

Oshawa
Total housing starts trended lower as the Oshawa CMA saw the least starts for the month of April in almost four decades. Strong demand for relatively affordable multi-unit housing led to record high apartment starts in 2018. In turn, this resulted in a record-high level of under construction inventory, which has preoccupied builders.

Hamilton
Overall housing starts in Hamilton reversed course and trended up, due to the highest townhome starts since May 2014. The strong demand for new townhomes was fueled by its price point, which fell within the price range that attracted the most buyers in the resale market over the past 12 months. The high level of competition for those resale homes caused a number of buyers to purchase a new townhome instead.  

Québec
Housing starts in the Québec CMA have been trending lower since the beginning of the year. From January to April 2019, starts were down by more than 30% from the same period last year. This was due mainly to fewer rental housing units started in the first four months of this year. Still, the number of rental housing units now under construction in the area remains at a record level.

Saguenay
The downward trend in housing starts in the Saguenay CMA that began several months ago continued in April 2019. The decrease in activity was attributable to fewer homeowner (freehold and condominium) housing starts. Overall, residential construction in the area has been limited by the slowdown in employment and low population growth.

New Brunswick
New Brunswick's total housing starts increased in April compared to the same month last year, mainly due to an increase in multi-unit construction. In the first four months of 2019, multi-unit construction increased 158% compared to 2018. Increased apartment construction activity is supported by historic low vacancy rates and strong population growth in urban centers. On the other hand, single-detached construction continues to trend down. In fact, the number of single-detached starts in the first four months of the year were the lowest on record. 

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 235,460 units in April, up 22.6% from 191,981 units in March. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 24.0% in April to 220,387 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 29.6% to 175,732 units in April while single-detached urban starts increased by 6.0% to 44,655 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15,073 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
	Single-Detached						All Others						Total
	April 2018		April 2019		%		April 2018		April 2019		%		April 2018	April 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.	25		12		-52		4		2		-50		29	14	-52
P.E.I.	23		12		-48		87		8		-91		110	20	-82
N.S.	64		81		27		167		158		-5		231	239	3
N.B.	20		16		-20		27		80		196		47	96	104
Atlantic	132		121		-8		285		248		-13		417	369	-12
Qc	617		585		-5		3,615		3,563		-1		4,232	4,148	-2
Ont.	1,610		1,211		-25		3,535		5,573		58		5,145	6,784	32
Man.	186		184		-1		263		303		15		449	487	8
Sask.	80		44		-45		60		60		-		140	104	-26
Alta.	965		722		-25		1,322		1,335		1		2,287	2,057	-10
Prairies	1,231		950		-23		1,645		1,698		3		2,876	2,648	-8
B.C.	831		730		-12		2,461		3,417		39		3,292	4,147	26
Canada (10,000+)	4,421		3,597		-19		11,541		14,499		26		15,962	18,096	13
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission	14		27		93		22		56		155		36	83	131
Barrie	15		3		-80		214		48		-78		229	51	-78
Belleville	19		28		47		4		6		50		23	34	48
Brantford	31		11		-65		4		25		##		35	36	3
Calgary	341		254		-26		862		701		-19		1,203	955	-21
Edmonton	453		323		-29		369		546		48		822	869	6
Greater Sudbury	7		3		-57		4		0		-100		11	3	-73
Guelph	6		15		150		48		8		-83		54	23	-57
Halifax	39		42		8		150		126		-16		189	168	-11
Hamilton	66		31		-53		566		430		-24		632	461	-27
Kelowna	67		41		-39		315		28		-91		382	69	-82
Kingston	25		19		-24		32		26		-19		57	45	-21
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo	50		82		64		56		1,087		##		106	1,169	##
Lethbridge	24		31		29		18		8		-56		42	39	-7
London	154		88		-43		213		348		63		367	436	19
Moncton	9		7		-22		6		78		##		15	85	467
Montréal	263		242		-8		2,653		2,336		-12		2,916	2,578	-12
Oshawa	121		28		-77		0		6		##		121	34	-72
Ottawa-Gatineau	187		270		44		403		628		56		590	898	52
Gatineau	25		43		72		35		365		##		60	408	##
Ottawa	162		227		40		368		263		-29		530	490	-8
Peterborough	31		17		-45		0		15		##		31	32	3
Québec	83		64		-23		222		288		30		305	352	15
Regina	24		10		-58		36		25		-31		60	35	-42
Saguenay	17		10		-41		33		12		-64		50	22	-56
St. Catharines-Niagara	64		109		70		181		209		15		245	318	30
Saint John	3		5		67		0		0		-		3	5	67
St. John's	21		7		-67		4		1		-75		25	8	-68
Saskatoon	48		29		-40		15		22		47		63	51	-19
Sherbrooke	30		24		-20		98		100		2		128	124	-3
Thunder Bay	0		1		##		0		0		-		0	1	##
Toronto	520		234		-55		1,638		2,920		78		2,158	3,154	46
Trois-Rivières	15		23		53		130		39		-70		145	62	-57
Vancouver	402		348		-13		1,567		2,524		61		1,969	2,872	46
Victoria	82		55		-33		189		395		109		271	450	66
Windsor	54		44		-19		14		30		114		68	74	9
Winnipeg	153		158		3		232		286		23		385	444	15
Total	3,438		2,683		-22		10,298		13,357		30		13,736	16,040	17
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
				Single-Detached			All Others			Total
				March 2019	April 2019	%	March 2019	April 2019	%	March 2019	April 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.				367	301	-18	42	44	5	409	345	-16
P.E.I.				82	161	96	0	96	##	82	257	213
N.S.				963	1,451	51	3,758	1,871	-50	4,721	3,322	-30
N.B.				520	500	-4	159	1,073	##	679	1,573	132
Qc				6,169	6,207	1	50,517	43,282	-14	56,686	49,489	-13
Ont.				15,015	16,994	13	43,234	68,106	58	58,249	85,100	46
Man.				2,150	2,064	-4	2,952	3,636	23	5,102	5,700	12
Sask.				867	514	-41	612	720	18	1,479	1,234	-17
Alta.				8,666	8,307	-4	9,118	15,872	74	17,784	24,179	36
B.C.				7,333	8,156	11	25,167	41,032	63	32,500	49,188	51
Canada (10,000+)				42,132	44,655	6	135,559	175,732	30	177,691	220,387	24
Canada (All Areas)				52,682	55,965	6	139,302	179,495	29	191,981	235,460	23
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission				345	324	-6	1,500	672	-55	1,845	996	-46
Barrie				152	107	-30	96	576	##	248	683	175
Belleville				630	338	-46	0	72	##	630	410	-35
Brantford				359	155	-57	96	300	213	455	455	-
Calgary				2,887	2,852	-1	4,008	8,412	110	6,895	11,264	63
Edmonton				3,838	3,966	3	3,120	6,552	110	6,958	10,518	51
Greater Sudbury				84	219	161	0	0	-	84	219	161
Guelph				176	203	15	0	96	##	176	299	70
Halifax				810	795	-2	3,588	1,512	-58	4,398	2,307	-48
Hamilton				483	433	-10	1,632	5,160	216	2,115	5,593	164
Kelowna				331	421	27	252	336	33	583	757	30
Kingston				79	263	233	396	312	-21	475	575	21
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo				758	988	30	756	13,044	##	1,514	14,032	##
Lethbridge				309	411	33	312	96	-69	621	507	-18
London				1,150	1,057	-8	1,380	4,176	203	2,530	5,233	107
Moncton				285	238	-16	0	936	##	285	1,174	312
Montréal				2,340	2,374	1	29,006	26,932	-7	31,346	29,306	-7
Oshawa				356	393	10	384	72	-81	740	465	-37
Ottawa-Gatineau				3,447	3,996	16	6,612	7,536	14	10,059	11,532	15
Gatineau				663	771	16	4,872	4,380	-10	5,535	5,151	-7
Ottawa				2,784	3,225	16	1,740	3,156	81	4,524	6,381	41
Peterborough				831	189	-77	480	180	-63	1,311	369	-72
Québec				557	624	12	2,172	3,456	59	2,729	4,080	50
Regina				226	156	-31	468	300	-36	694	456	-34
Saguenay				136	120	-12	24	144	##	160	264	65
St. Catharines-Niagara				1,996	1,291	-35	1,596	2,508	57	3,592	3,799	6
Saint John				87	85	-2	0	0	-	87	85	-2
St. John's				223	171	-23	0	12	##	223	183	-18
Saskatoon				595	442	-26	96	264	175	691	706	2
Sherbrooke				477	244	-49	3,348	1,200	-64	3,825	1,444	-62
Thunder Bay				125	109	-13	0	0	-	125	109	-13
Toronto				1,891	2,966	57	30,264	35,040	16	32,155	38,006	18
Trois-Rivières				128	196	53	276	468	70	404	664	64
Vancouver				3,695	3,913	6	17,316	30,288	75	21,011	34,201	63
Victoria				572	565	-1	1,488	4,740	219	2,060	5,305	158
Windsor				393	437	11	216	360	67	609	797	31
Winnipeg				1,659	1,700	2	2,364	3,432	45	4,023	5,132	28
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

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