Canadian Housing Starts Trend Sees Large Gain in November

OTTAWA, Dec. 8, 2017 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 226,270 units in November 2017, compared to 216,642 units in October 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas. November 2017 (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Government of Canada (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"The trend in housing starts reached its highest level in almost 10 years this November, reflecting a second consecutive increase in multiple starts," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "This largely reflects construction of multiple units in Toronto, where evidence of overbuilding is low due to the decreasing inventory of completed and unabsorbed multiple units and strong demand."

Monthly Highlights

St. John's
Total housing starts increased in November due to a notable increase in the multiple segment. The shift from single-detached to multiple housing starts has been driven by millennials and first-time buyers seeking lower priced alternatives in an uncertain economic environment. In fact, year-to-date housing starts are trending 12% lower than in 2016.                     

Trois-Rivières
The trend in housing starts in the Trois-Rivières CMA, although down from a year earlier, remained high in November. Overall, the renewed growth in starts observed since the beginning of the year has been mainly attributable to an increase in activity in the rental housing segment. This gain has been supported in part by demand from older households, who will in fact continue to have an impact on this market over the coming years.

Sherbrooke
The slight downward trend in housing starts that began a few months ago in the Sherbrooke CMA continued in November 2017. The slowdown in activity observed since the beginning of this year has been due to decreases in the rental apartment and condominium segments. In fact, the rental housing vacancy rate remains high and inventories of condominiums for sale are still sizable. However, starts of freehold homes stayed stable supported by strong employment among people aged 25 to 44.

Toronto
Total housing starts in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) trended higher in November 2017. Multiple-family dwelling starts trended significantly higher and contributed to the overall increase.  Given escalating house prices of single-detached homes, more homebuyers continued to shift demand towards lower priced condominium apartments and townhomes. Higher sales of pre-construction condominium units in the past two years will continue to break ground throughout this year resulting in more condominium apartment starts.

Guelph
Guelph builders started 269 homes in November, significantly higher than the 62 homes started a year ago. This increase was due to the jump in apartment starts which are above the ten-year average in response to strong demand from downsizing seniors, young households, immigrants and students. The rental market in Guelph is tight with a vacancy rate of 1.2%. The strong demand for rental apartments has translated into more apartment starts. Single-detached and townhouse starts are lower this year. Fewer low-rise new home sales this year have translated into lower starts. 

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo builders started 658 homes in November, significantly higher than the 222 homes started a year ago. For the first eleven months of 2017, single-detached starts are lower, while starts for townhouses are up 51% and for apartments, 26%. Demographics are playing a role in new home construction as there has been a shift to smaller households. One-person households, couples without children households and lone-parent households are increasing at a much faster pace than couples with children households which stimulates demand for affordable options such as townhouses and apartments.

London
Total housing starts in London CMA posted one of the highest levels ever recorded for the month of November. Strong population growth and a low supply of resale home listings have strengthened demand for new single-detached homes – resulting in a thirteen year high for single-detached starts during the month of November. In addition, stronger rental demand this year indicated by the lowest vacancy rate in London CMA since 2001, has already led to a higher number of apartment starts this year than the annual record set in 2016.

Regina
The trend in total housing starts declined in November after both single-detached and multi-family construction trended lower from the previous month. However, year to date, actual new home starts in Regina were 32% higher than in the same period of 2016. This is as a result of the strong surge in residential construction led by a 55% increase in multi-unit production. On balance, improving labour market conditions and continued population growth are supporting new home demand in Regina this year.

Vancouver
Seasonally adjusted monthly starts in the Vancouver CMA were lower in November mostly due to a pullback in apartment starts as the construction sector remains at full capacity. Fewer multi-family condo and rental projects are getting underway in the City of Vancouver, Richmond, and on the North Shore, meanwhile, Burnaby and New Westminster have observed higher multi-family starts so far in 2017, relative to the same period last year.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 252,184 units in November, up from 222,695 units in October. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 14.4 per cent in November to 235,412 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 16.9 per cent to 175,016 units in November. Single-detached urban starts increased by 7.5 per cent, to 60,396 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16,772 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Additional data is available upon request. 

Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
			Single-Detached			All Others			Total
			November 2016	November 2017	%	November 2016	November 2017	%	November 2016	November 2017	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.			66	55	-17	27	57	111	93	112	20
P.E.I.			16	29	81	11	55	400	27	84	211
N.S.			127	113	-11	230	216	-6	357	329	-8
N.B.			62	83	34	65	107	65	127	190	50
Atlantic			271	280	3	333	435	31	604	715	18
Qc			520	546	5	2,325	3,536	52	2,845	4,082	43
Ont.			2,672	2,303	-14	2,466	6,202	152	5,138	8,505	66
Man.			190	202	6	309	303	-2	499	505	1
Sask.			188	141	-25	81	186	130	269	327	22
Alta.			1,016	1,000	-2	1,027	1,774	73	2,043	2,774	36
Prairies			1,394	1,343	-4	1,417	2,263	60	2,811	3,606	28
B.C.			832	1,005	21	2,826	2,813	0	3,658	3,818	4
Canada (10,000+)			5,689	5,477	-4	9,367	15,249	63	15,056	20,726	38
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission			15	57	280	5	112	##	20	169	##
Barrie			44	83	89	12	73	##	56	156	179
Belleville			**	34	##	**	18	##	**	52	##
Brantford			8	8	-	14	2	-86	22	10	-55
Calgary			346	390	13	399	1,114	179	745	1,504	102
Edmonton			436	400	-8	550	526	-4	986	926	-6
Greater Sudbury			12	18	50	2	6	200	14	24	71
Guelph			16	19	19	46	250	443	62	269	334
Halifax			46	51	11	195	171	-12	241	222	-8
Hamilton			91	59	-35	81	366	352	172	425	147
Kelowna			93	88	-5	51	145	184	144	233	62
Kingston			38	11	-71	7	11	57	45	22	-51
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo			97	88	-9	125	570	356	222	658	196
Lethbridge			**	34	##	**	6	##	**	40	##
London			141	163	16	84	478	469	225	641	185
Moncton			29	23	-21	16	91	469	45	114	153
Montréal			209	237	13	1,188	1,921	62	1,397	2,158	54
Oshawa			43	111	158	78	188	141	121	299	147
Ottawa-Gatineau			201	242	20	267	787	195	468	1,029	120
	Gatineau		24	48	100	77	33	-57	101	81	-20
	Ottawa		177	194	10	190	754	297	367	948	158
Peterborough			27	16	-41	9	0	-100	36	16	-56
Québec			90	66	-27	409	975	138	499	1,041	109
Regina			68	36	-47	30	102	240	98	138	41
Saguenay			17	19	12	26	41	58	43	60	40
St. Catharines-Niagara			122	110	-10	28	132	371	150	242	61
Saint John			6	25	317	6	2	-67	12	27	125
St. John's			54	42	-22	24	52	117	78	94	21
Saskatoon			99	79	-20	25	60	140	124	139	12
Sherbrooke			28	22	-21	141	130	-8	169	152	-10
Thunder Bay			12	16	33	2	12	##	14	28	100
Toronto			1,308	886	-32	1,435	3,014	110	2,743	3,900	42
Trois-Rivières			16	13	-19	103	35	-66	119	48	-60
Vancouver			379	497	31	2,272	2,141	-6	2,651	2,638	0
Victoria			69	67	-3	199	156	-22	268	223	-17
Windsor			77	45	-42	63	96	52	140	141	1
Winnipeg			166	153	-8	291	291	-	457	444	-3
Total			4,403	4,208	-4	8,183	14,074	72	12,586	18,282	45
Data for 2016 based on 2011 Census Definitions.
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
			Single-Detached			All Others			Total
			October 2017	November 2017	%	October 2017	November 2017	%	October 2017	November 2017	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.			517	526	2	511	612	20	1,028	1,138	11
P.E.I.			480	284	-41	252	660	162	732	944	29
N.S.			1,226	1,047	-15	1,180	2,420	105	2,406	3,467	44
N.B.			813	789	-3	2,154	1,266	-41	2,967	2,055	-31
Qc			6,191	6,440	4	43,848	38,311	-13	50,039	44,751	-11
Ont.			21,190	24,470	15	36,626	71,271	95	57,816	95,741	66
Man.			2,384	2,414	1	1,968	3,636	85	4,352	6,050	39
Sask.			1,825	1,570	-14	3,372	2,232	-34	5,197	3,802	-27
Alta.			11,960	11,078	-7	15,416	21,100	37	27,376	32,178	18
B.C.			9,604	11,778	23	44,341	33,508	-24	53,945	45,286	-16
Canada (10,000+)			56,190	60,396	7	149,668	175,016	17	205,858	235,412	14
Canada (All Areas)			69,161	73,247	6	153,536	178,937	17	222,695	252,184	13
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission			260	688	165	1,140	1,344	18	1,400	2,032	45
Barrie			836	1,048	25	600	876	46	1,436	1,924	34
Belleville			391	489	25	276	216	-22	667	705	6
Brantford			151	142	-6	0	24	##	151	166	10
Calgary			4,465	4,178	-6	6,816	13,368	96	11,281	17,546	56
Edmonton			4,396	4,351	-1	4,764	6,312	32	9,160	10,663	16
Greater Sudbury			102	160	57	48	72	50	150	232	55
Guelph			254	263	4	288	3,000	##	542	3,263	##
Halifax			850	628	-26	840	2,052	144	1,690	2,680	59
Hamilton			708	752	6	1,080	4,392	307	1,788	5,144	188
Kelowna			748	839	12	1,212	1,740	44	1,960	2,579	32
Kingston			221	97	-56	168	132	-21	389	229	-41
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo			865	968	12	1,236	6,840	453	2,101	7,808	272
Lethbridge			452	462	2	948	72	-92	1,400	534	-62
London			1,632	1,858	14	504	5,736	##	2,136	7,594	256
Moncton			340	190	-44	1,680	1,092	-35	2,020	1,282	-37
Montréal			2,653	2,741	3	38,178	23,021	-40	40,831	25,762	-37
Oshawa			491	1,485	202	3,096	2,256	-27	3,587	3,741	4
Ottawa-Gatineau			3,004	2,669	-11	3,816	9,444	147	6,820	12,113	78
	Gatineau		423	471	11	504	396	-21	927	867	-6
	Ottawa		2,581	2,198	-15	3,312	9,048	173	5,893	11,246	91
Peterborough			249	191	-23	48	0	-100	297	191	-36
Québec			769	737	-4	3,276	11,700	257	4,045	12,437	207
Regina			521	399	-23	1,212	1,224	1	1,733	1,623	-6
Saguenay			274	246	-10	324	492	52	598	738	23
St. Catharines-Niagara			870	1,101	27	2,376	1,584	-33	3,246	2,685	-17
Saint John			189	279	48	48	24	-50	237	303	28
St. John's			368	391	6	504	624	24	872	1,015	16
Saskatoon			1,094	887	-19	1,884	720	-62	2,978	1,607	-46
Sherbrooke			202	247	22	1,092	1,560	43	1,294	1,807	40
Thunder Bay			114	149	31	360	144	-60	474	293	-38
Toronto			6,975	9,040	30	21,048	36,168	72	28,023	45,208	61
Trois-Rivières			188	176	-6	348	420	21	536	596	11
Vancouver			4,376	6,171	41	30,408	25,692	-16	34,784	31,863	-8
Victoria			881	795	-10	8,460	1,872	-78	9,341	2,667	-71
Windsor			615	574	-7	648	1,152	78	1,263	1,726	37
Winnipeg			1,783	1,842	3	1,524	3,492	129	3,307	5,334	61
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions. Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC ## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

Related Links

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