Canadian housing starts trended higher in July

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

OTTAWA, Aug. 9, 2019 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 208,970 units in July 2019, compared to 205,765 units in June 2019, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"The national trend in housing starts increased in July, despite a decrease in the level of SAAR activity from June," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "High levels of activity in apartment and row starts in urban centres in recent months continued to be reflected in the high level of the total starts trend in July".

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) housing starts continued to trend higher in July. Compared to the same period last year, the year-to-date single-detached home starts declined while the multi-unit starts increased. More than 85% of starts were multi-unit, most of which are in the City of Vancouver and the City of Surrey. Overall, continuous strengthening of economic fundamentals supported a steady growth of 25% in the year-to-date starts in the CMA between 2018 and 2019.

Victoria
Housing starts in the Victoria CMA declined in July, relative to the same month last year, across both the single-detached and multi-unit segments of the market. In the first seven months of 2019, housing starts were down approximately 12% relative to the same period in 2018. Continued overall strength in housing starts in the Victoria area is symptomatic of strong housing demand seen over the past three years and current strong demand for multi-unit options, in particular, in the area.

Lethbridge
The trend in total starts in the Lethbridge CMA was higher in July 2019 compared to the previous month. Apartment starts trended 360% higher compared to June as rental demand continue to increase. Single-detached and row starts trended lower while semi-detached starts remained stable.

Regina
Total housing starts in Regina trended lower in July after the pace of single-detached and multi-family construction slowed from the previous month. In 2019, builders have initiated just over a third of the total units started over the same period in 2018. This is largely due to higher construction costs and weaker economic conditions that have moderated new home demand and caused some projects to either be shelved or cancelled altogether.

Winnipeg
The trend in total housing starts in the Winnipeg CMA decreased in July compared to the previous month. The downward trend in total starts was mainly due to decreases in multi-family starts as both row and apartment starts trended lower. Single-family starts, however, trended higher but were not enough to offset the decreases in the multi-family units.

Toronto
Total housing starts trended lower in July in the Toronto CMA, primarily driven by lower multi-unit starts (semi-detached, rows, and apartments). Pre-construction sales of multi-unit homes, particularly condominium apartments, have been strong for the last few years and will break ground at a varying pace throughout the year. Strong demand for relatively affordable higher density housing continues to persist among homebuyers in Toronto.

St. Catharines
In July 2019, the total housing starts trend in the St. Catharines CMA inched lower. The total housing starts trend in recent months remained close to a 30-year high with townhomes accounting for the largest share. Improvements in employment conditions for people aged 25-44 fueled first-time home buying activity in relatively affordable home types such as townhomes.

Ottawa
The monthly trend for housing starts grew in Ottawa in July across all housing types. Year-to-date, total housing starts sit 5.3% higher than the same period last year with the strongest growth in condominium apartments followed by row starts. Low resale and rental market supply coupled with higher ownership costs for single-detached homes are encouraging construction of less expensive dwelling types.

Montréal
From January to July, housing starts in the Montréal area were up compared to the same period last year. This gain was solely attributable to rental housing construction, as condominium and single-family home starts recorded decreases. The low vacancy rates on the conventional rental market and the greater proportion of young households now opting for rental housing have kept stimulating rental housing starts. Seniors' rental apartment construction has also posted strong growth since the beginning of the year. 

Saguenay
From January to July, housing starts in the Saguenay CMA dropped by 18% compared to the same period last year. This decrease in activity was attributable to fewer homeowner (freehold and condominium) housing starts. Overall, residential construction in the area has been limited by the slowdown in employment and low population growth. 

New Brunswick
In New Brunswick, year-to-date total housing starts are up 40% compared to last year. The increase largely reflects unprecedented levels of rental apartment construction, particularly in Moncton and Saint John. These two CMAs alone accounted for 75% of all new multi-unit construction in the province. The number of multi-unit starts this year are the highest recorded in the first seven months since 2010. New Brunswick's urban centres are benefiting from provincial strategies to actively attract and retain immigrants. These new arrivals are boosting rental demand, in addition to demand from an aging population.

Prince Edward Island (PEI)
Total housing starts in PEI were 319% higher in July, due to the ongoing surge in new apartment construction activity in response to the Island's near zero vacancy rate. The PEI economy continues to outperform the other Atlantic Provinces, driven primarily by increased capital project spending and growth in population, income and employment.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 222,013 units in July, down 9.6% from 245,455 units in June. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 10.4% in July to 209,122 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 12% to 162,722 units in July while single-detached urban starts decreased by 4.6% to 46,400 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12,891 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		July 2018	July 2019	%	July 2018	July 2019	%	July 2018	July 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		64	41	-36	36	11	-69	100	52	-48
P.E.I.		31	27	-13	5	124	##	36	151	319
N.S.		134	145	8	396	186	-53	530	331	-38
N.B.		112	104	-7	112	165	47	224	269	20
Atlantic		341	317	-7	549	486	-11	890	803	-10
Qc		629	605	-4	2,214	3,154	42	2,843	3,759	32
Ont.		2,029	1,867	-8	3,957	4,178	6	5,986	6,045	1
Man.		218	202	-7	514	310	-40	732	512	-30
Sask.		154	88	-43	81	37	-54	235	125	-47
Alta.		1,094	839	-23	1,456	1,586	9	2,550	2,425	-5
Prairies		1,466	1,129	-23	2,051	1,933	-6	3,517	3,062	-13
B.C.		877	706	-19	2,661	3,630	36	3,538	4,336	23
Canada (10,000+)		5,342	4,624	-13	11,432	13,381	17	16,774	18,005	7
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		42	28	-33	111	218	96	153	246	61
Barrie		169	43	-75	0	32	##	169	75	-56
Belleville		47	49	4	9	8	-11	56	57	2
Brantford		37	74	100	21	14	-33	58	88	52
Calgary		301	283	-6	709	408	-42	1,010	691	-32
Edmonton		563	373	-34	518	988	91	1,081	1,361	26
Greater Sudbury		22	26	18	8	18	125	30	44	47
Guelph		10	25	150	81	53	-35	91	78	-14
Halifax		74	81	9	330	148	-55	404	229	-43
Hamilton		76	39	-49	226	85	-62	302	124	-59
Kelowna		46	48	4	112	74	-34	158	122	-23
Kingston		37	28	-24	26	61	135	63	89	41
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		49	68	39	62	347	460	111	415	274
Lethbridge		43	36	-16	8	107	##	51	143	180
London		156	151	-3	92	124	35	248	275	11
Moncton		44	31	-30	20	89	345	64	120	88
Montréal		253	247	-2	1,287	1,867	45	1,540	2,114	37
Oshawa		51	99	94	68	42	-38	119	141	18
Ottawa-Gatineau		339	320	-6	514	579	13	853	899	5
Gatineau		38	44	16	247	256	4	285	300	5
Ottawa		301	276	-8	267	323	21	568	599	5
Peterborough		64	17	-73	0	95	##	64	112	75
Québec		70	70	-	266	679	155	336	749	123
Regina		29	19	-34	38	5	-87	67	24	-64
Saguenay		32	15	-53	16	10	-38	48	25	-48
St. Catharines-Niagara		53	72	36	12	53	342	65	125	92
Saint John		19	26	37	52	0	-100	71	26	-63
St. John's		46	25	-46	24	6	-75	70	31	-56
Saskatoon		111	51	-54	27	16	-41	138	67	-51
Sherbrooke		19	26	37	36	55	53	55	81	47
Thunder Bay		28	9	-68	0	9	##	28	18	-36
Toronto		491	456	-7	2,872	2,315	-19	3,363	2,771	-18
Trois-Rivières		13	18	38	44	32	-27	57	50	-12
Vancouver		411	345	-16	1,746	2,353	35	2,157	2,698	25
Victoria		97	46	-53	320	261	-18	417	307	-26
Windsor		59	86	46	24	335	##	83	421	407
Winnipeg		173	169	-2	474	246	-48	647	415	-36
Total		4,074	3,499	-14	10,153	11,732	16	14,227	15,231	7
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		June 2019	July 2019	%	June 2019	July 2019	%	June 2019	July 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		460	355	-23	228	85	-63	688	440	-36
P.E.I.		274	215	-22	1,116	1,488	33	1,390	1,703	23
N.S.		1,424	1,348	-5	5,859	2,162	-63	7,283	3,510	-52
N.B.		611	635	4	4,388	1,853	-58	4,999	2,488	-50
Qc		6,255	6,144	-2	45,875	41,713	-9	52,130	47,857	-8
Ont.		18,267	18,899	3	46,950	49,044	4	65,217	67,943	4
Man.		2,134	2,099	-2	6,948	3,720	-46	9,082	5,819	-36
Sask.		1,119	801	-28	1,488	444	-70	2,607	1,245	-52
Alta.		10,059	8,477	-16	20,108	18,783	-7	30,167	27,260	-10
B.C.		8,039	7,427	-8	51,901	43,430	-16	59,940	50,857	-15
Canada (10,000+)		48,642	46,400	-5	184,861	162,722	-12	233,503	209,122	-10
Canada (All Areas)		56,838	55,957	-2	188,618	166,055	-12	245,455	222,013	-10
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		413	321	-22	384	2,616	##	797	2,937	269
Barrie		166	204	23	0	384	##	166	588	254
Belleville		453	442	-2	336	96	-71	789	538	-32
Brantford		77	484	##	60	168	180	137	652	376
Calgary		3,196	3,184	0	9,612	4,896	-49	12,808	8,080	-37
Edmonton		4,737	3,954	-17	10,056	11,856	18	14,793	15,810	7
Greater Sudbury		85	128	51	144	216	50	229	344	50
Guelph		304	293	-4	156	636	308	460	929	102
Halifax		797	755	-5	5,520	1,776	-68	6,317	2,531	-60
Hamilton		542	381	-30	1,164	1,020	-12	1,706	1,401	-18
Kelowna		703	618	-12	2,196	888	-60	2,899	1,506	-48
Kingston		356	250	-30	0	732	##	356	982	176
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		835	979	17	2,916	4,164	43	3,751	5,143	37
Lethbridge		371	349	-6	360	1,284	257	731	1,633	123
London		1,155	1,442	25	3,732	1,488	-60	4,887	2,930	-40
Moncton		161	185	15	2,508	1,068	-57	2,669	1,253	-53
Montréal		2,336	2,572	10	37,393	22,387	-40	39,729	24,959	-37
Oshawa		1,208	965	-20	936	504	-46	2,144	1,469	-31
Ottawa-Gatineau		2,671	3,164	18	7,776	6,948	-11	10,447	10,112	-3
Gatineau		491	440	-10	972	3,072	216	1,463	3,512	140
Ottawa		2,180	2,724	25	6,804	3,876	-43	8,984	6,600	-27
Peterborough		117	119	2	84	1,140	##	201	1,259	##
Québec		756	830	10	10,812	8,148	-25	11,568	8,978	-22
Regina		219	182	-17	528	60	-89	747	242	-68
Saguenay		186	138	-26	360	120	-67	546	258	-53
St. Catharines-Niagara		1,256	667	-47	696	636	-9	1,952	1,303	-33
Saint John		127	188	48	864	0	-100	991	188	-81
St. John's		356	231	-35	300	72	-76	656	303	-54
Saskatoon		713	523	-27	912	192	-79	1,625	715	-56
Sherbrooke		387	388	0	432	660	53	819	1,048	28
Thunder Bay		106	56	-47	48	108	125	154	164	6
Toronto		5,417	5,247	-3	29,520	27,780	-6	34,937	33,027	-5
Trois-Rivières		234	227	-3	72	384	433	306	611	100
Vancouver		3,602	3,616	0	37,896	28,236	-25	41,498	31,852	-23
Victoria		675	516	-24	1,788	3,132	75	2,463	3,648	48
Windsor		546	760	39	216	4,020	##	762	4,780	##
Winnipeg		1,762	1,783	1	6,660	2,952	-56	8,422	4,735	-44
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

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