Canadian housing starts trended lower in February

OTTAWA, March 8, 2019 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 203,554 units in February 2019, compared to 207,742 units in January 2019, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"The national trend in housing starts resumed its downward trajectory in February while still remaining above historical average," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "Both single-detached and multi-unit dwellings starts trended lower. Higher mortgage rates combined with still-favourable, but less stimulative economic conditions have contributed to softer demand on new home markets in urban centres."

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
The trend measure for February 2019 housing starts in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) remained steady at a similar level as January. However, compared to the same month last year, the share of single starts decreased while condo starts rose to 77% of all new housing units in the CMA this month. This growth is led by Burnaby's condo sector, which accounted for 50% of all new construction activities for the month.

Victoria
The February 2019 trend measure for housing starts in Metro Victoria declined from a recent high-water mark in December. However, new condo construction boosted total housing starts above the level reached in the same period last year. The relative affordability of condo units as compared to single detached units has helped bolster demand for new units.  

Edmonton
Housing starts in all segments of the market trended lower in February. While the number of starts and units under construction has been slowing in recent months, the number of completions continue to outpace absorptions, which is contributing to rising inventory levels in the ownership market. The slow economic recovery across Alberta combined with other demand headwinds continue to impact homeownership activity in Edmonton.

Regina
The total housing starts trended down in the Regina CMA in February after construction activity slowed in both single-detached and multi-unit segments. Actual starts during the second month of 2019 totalled 27 units, compared to 140 units in the same month a year earlier. A series of factors including weaker economic conditions, higher borrowing costs and inclement weather have significantly reduced homebuilding activity so far this year.

Toronto
Total housing starts in the Toronto CMA trended lower in February mainly due to low condominium apartment starts. Row and semi-detached home starts trended higher underlining their popularity among buyers looking for lower priced ground-oriented homes.  Fewer pre-construction sales on single-detached homes throughout 2018 will continue to result in fewer starts in 2019. Conversely, sales of new condominium apartment starts have been strong in 2017 and 2018 and these units will continue to break ground throughout this year at a varying pace.

Hamilton
Row and apartment starts remained high and decreased less than single-detached starts, which were already very sluggish. A wider gap has developed between the number of multi-unit housing starts and single-detached starts because buyers had their purchasing power reduced in the past 6 to 12 months due to rising carrying costs. Pre-construction sales of new single-detached homes during that time, which are now turning into starts, suffered the most of any dwelling type due to their generally higher price tag.

St. Catharines
New home starts in the St. Catharines CMA continued their upward trend in February 2019 to reach a 10-month high, to a large extent thanks to stronger row and apartment starts. The affordability advantage relative to the nearby communities and the future expansion of the rapid transit network to the region continue to support construction of new homes.

Windsor
The housing starts trend fell for the third month in a row in February. This month's decline was marked by fewer single-detached and row starts, while apartment starts went in the opposite direction. Due to fewer new listings of lower priced housing in the resale market, there has been growing need for new condominium apartments. This has resulted in the apartment starts trend rising to its hightest level in the past decade.

Sherbrooke
In the first two months of 2019, housing starts in the Sherbrooke CMA were up compared to the same period in 2018. This increase was attributable to both rental housing, particularly seniors' residences, and freehold (single-detached, semi-detached, row and duplex) homes. Residential construction in the area has continued to be stimulated by the rise in full-time employment, migration and the aging of the population.

Montréal
Total housing starts in the Montréal area in the first two months of the year were down from the corresponding period in 2018. However, unlike condominium and single-family home building, rental apartment construction has continued to show strong growth. The low vacancy rates, the aging of the population and the greater proportion of young households now opting for the rental market have continued to stimulate rental housing starts.

Halifax
Total housing starts in February expanded by 25% year-over-year as construction on the multiples market in Halifax remains strong. While single-detached starts were stable compared to the same period last year, continued population growth from both international and interprovincial migration, combined with low vacancy rates are driving elevated levels of rental apartment construction.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 173,153 units in February, down 16.3% from 206,809 units in January. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 18.0% in February to 155,663 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 20.2% to 116,284 units in February while single-detached urban starts decreased by 10.6% to 39,379 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,490 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
			Single-Detached			All Others			Total
			February 2018	February 2019	%	February 2018	February 2019	%	February 2018	February 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.			16	5	-69	2	9	350	18	14	-22
P.E.I.			6	6	-	24	0	-100	30	6	-80
N.S.			83	57	-31	174	196	13	257	253	-2
N.B.			12	6	-50	1	0	-100	13	6	-54
Atlantic			117	74	-37	201	205	2	318	279	-12
Qc			189	182	-4	2,291	1,753	-23	2,480	1,935	-22
Ont.			1,315	746	-43	5,902	2,761	-53	7,217	3,507	-51
Man.			141	125	-11	176	201	14	317	326	3
Sask.			75	48	-36	146	24	-84	221	72	-67
Alta.			783	518	-34	924	876	-5	1,707	1,394	-18
Prairies			999	691	-31	1,246	1,101	-12	2,245	1,792	-20
B.C.			544	442	-19	1,893	2,429	28	2,437	2,871	18
Canada (10,000+)			3,164	2,135	-33	11,533	8,249	-28	z14,697	10,384	-29
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission			24	19	-21	30	100	233	54	119	120
Barrie			54	3	-94	74	72	-3	128	75	-41
Belleville			8	5	-38	0	0	-	8	5	-38
Brantford			17	14	-18	0	14	##	17	28	65
Calgary			296	207	-30	282	395	40	578	602	4
Edmonton			346	221	-36	487	383	-21	833	604	-27
Greater Sudbury			0	0	-	0	0	-	0	0	-
Guelph			8	6	-25	36	170	372	44	176	300
Halifax			33	30	-9	136	181	33	169	211	25
Hamilton			61	25	-59	96	123	28	157	148	-6
Kelowna			22	15	-32	15	8	-47	37	23	-38
Kingston			8	2	-75	16	0	-100	24	2	-92
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo			114	63	-45	105	24	-77	219	87	-60
Lethbridge			33	8	-76	5	44	##	38	52	37
London			111	50	-55	20	23	15	131	73	-44
Moncton			4	2	-50	0	0	-	4	2	-50
Montréal			114	90	-21	1,947	1,000	-49	2,061	1,090	-47
Oshawa			104	12	-88	6	19	217	110	31	-72
Ottawa-Gatineau			75	87	16	68	727	##	143	814	469
	Gatineau		16	8	-50	10	122	##	26	130	400
	Ottawa		59	79	34	58	605	##	117	684	485
Peterborough			17	3	-82	0	0	-	17	3	-82
Québec			10	24	140	42	83	98	52	107	106
Regina			32	18	-44	108	9	-92	140	27	-81
Saguenay			3	2	-33	0	14	##	3	16	433
St. Catharines-Niagara			70	53	-24	68	106	56	138	159	15
Saint John			2	1	-50	0	0	-	2	1	-50
St. John's			13	5	-62	2	9	350	15	14	-7
Saskatoon			37	27	-27	33	15	-55	70	42	-40
Sherbrooke			4	8	100	83	291	251	87	299	244
Thunder Bay			0	1	##	0	0	-	0	1	##
Toronto			394	183	-54	5,283	1,403	-73	5,677	1,586	-72
Trois-Rivières			5	0	-100	2	30	##	7	30	329
Vancouver			273	208	-24	1,347	1,791	33	1,620	1,999	23
Victoria			50	39	-22	261	299	15	311	338	9
Windsor			28	13	-54	43	42	-2	71	55	-23
Winnipeg			127	112	-12	121	192	59	248	304	23
Total			2,497	1,556	-38	10,716	7,567	-29	13,213	9,123	-31
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
			Single-Detached			All Others			Total
			January 2019	February 2019	%	January 2019	February 2019	%	January 2019	February 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.			381	260	-32	50	113	126	431	373	-13
P.E.I.			100	309	209	540	0	-100	640	309	-52
N.S.			1,493	1,240	-17	1,939	2,479	28	3,432	3,719	8
N.B.			457	455	0	855	13	-98	1,312	468	-64
Qc			4,730	5,886	24	36,219	29,019	-20	40,949	34,905	-15
Ont.			16,384	13,863	-15	55,831	41,879	-25	72,215	55,742	-23
Man.			1,980	1,931	-2	3,636	2,412	-34	5,616	4,343	-23
Sask.			1,259	893	-29	816	288	-65	2,075	1,181	-43
Alta.			9,397	7,329	-22	13,288	10,747	-19	22,685	18,076	-20
B.C.			7,878	7,213	-8	32,529	29,334	-10	40,407	36,547	-10
Canada (10,000+)			44,059	39,379	-11	145,703	116,284	-20	189,762	155,663	-18
Canada (All Areas)			56,444	51,997	-8	150,364	121,153	-19	206,809	173,153	-16
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission			431	306	-29	384	1,200	213	815	1,506	85
Barrie			358	171	-52	0	864	##	358	1,035	189
Belleville			394	300	-24	0	0	-	394	300	-24
Brantford			150	236	57	0	168	##	150	404	169
Calgary			3,794	3,004	-21	5,172	4,740	-8	8,966	7,744	-14
Edmonton			3,768	3,187	-15	6,948	4,596	-34	10,716	7,783	-27
Greater Sudbury			93	137	47	24	0	-100	117	137	17
Guelph			195	83	-57	228	2,040	##	423	2,123	402
Halifax			994	800	-20	1,692	2,172	28	2,686	2,972	11
Hamilton			476	371	-22	3,624	1,476	-59	4,100	1,847	-55
Kelowna			992	233	-77	3,216	96	-97	4,208	329	-92
Kingston			625	73	-88	1,764	0	-100	2,389	73	-97
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo			1,374	990	-28	960	288	-70	2,334	1,278	-45
Lethbridge			596	92	-85	84	528	##	680	620	-9
London			1,065	895	-16	2,712	276	-90	3,777	1,171	-69
Moncton			3	166	##	24	0	-100	27	166	##
Montréal			2,254	2,109	-6	17,384	12,774	-27	19,638	14,883	-24
Oshawa			552	349	-37	228	228	-	780	577	-26
Ottawa-Gatineau			1,906	2,060	8	2,052	8,724	325	3,958	10,784	172
	Gatineau		59	210	256	744	1,464	97	803	1,674	108
	Ottawa		1,847	1,850	0	1,308	7,260	455	3,155	9,110	189
Peterborough			130	114	-12	0	0	-	130	114	-12
Québec			423	637	51	1,128	996	-12	1,551	1,633	5
Regina			277	272	-2	420	108	-74	697	380	-45
Saguenay			124	126	2	0	168	##	124	294	137
St. Catharines-Niagara			1,192	770	-35	648	1,272	96	1,840	2,042	11
Saint John			118	80	-32	444	0	-100	562	80	-86
St. John's			347	242	-30	24	108	350	371	350	-6
Saskatoon			909	515	-43	396	180	-55	1,305	695	-47
Sherbrooke			122	371	204	0	3,492	##	122	3,863	##
Thunder Bay			5	1,428	##	0	0	-	5	1,428	##
Toronto			3,846	3,377	-12	35,304	16,836	-52	39,150	20,213	-48
Trois-Rivières			94	7	-93	216	360	67	310	367	18
Vancouver			2,924	3,514	20	22,404	21,492	-4	25,328	25,006	-1
Victoria			488	528	8	2,424	3,588	48	2,912	4,116	41
Windsor			604	325	-46	144	504	250	748	829	11
Winnipeg			1,755	1,665	-5	3,528	2,304	-35	5,283	3,969	-25
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

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