Canadian housing starts trended lower in October

OTTAWA, Nov. 8, 2019 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 218,598 units in October 2019, compared to 223,276 units in September 2019, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"The national trend in housing starts decreased in October," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "Multi-family starts in urban centres trended lower following four months of consecutive gains, offsetting a modest increase in the trend of urban single-detached starts in October".

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver
Housing starts in Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) trended lower in October 2019 compared to October 2018, driven by a 15% decline in the multi-units sector. However, the year-to-date multi-units starts, mostly concentrated in the City of Vancouver and the City of Surrey, was up 31% compared to the same period last year, contributing to an increase of total starts between 2018 and 2019.

Kelowna
Housing starts in the Kelowna CMA were up significantly in October, relative to the same month last year, as some new large multi-unit projects got underway. In particular, a large number of rental apartment units got underway representing 73% of the overall number of multi-unit starts in the month of October. The number of rental units that have gotten underway in October represents the first meaningful increase in rental housing starts in over a year.

Edmonton
Total housing starts increased in the Edmonton CMA in October 2019 as multi-family unit construction more than doubled compared to the same month last year. This increased occurred across all multi-family housing types, with the largest increase occurring in apartment units. Year-to-date, new housing construction continues to increase, despite elevated inventory levels.

Regina
Total housing starts in Regina trended higher in October after builders increased the pace of single-detached construction. Despite the increase in the six-month trend, actual residential starts have declined by 57%, year-to-date, from the same period in 2018. The reduction is due to a number of factors including elevated new housing inventory, moderate economic conditions, higher construction costs and weaker new home demand.

Thunder Bay
The trend for overall housing starts in the Thunder Bay CMA increased considerably in October due almost entirely to an increase in the trend for apartment starts. Notably, the trend measure for apartment starts reached its highest level in nearly two years due to October rental apartment construction. Supporting this increase has been growth in the population aged 65 and over, the fastest growing segment of the population, and a group with a relatively high propensity to rent.

Toronto
Total housing starts trended slightly lower in October due to lower multi-unit home starts. Strong pre-construction sales of condominium apartments over the past two years continue to break ground at a varying pace throughout this year. Pre-construction sales of single-detached homes trended higher towards the latter half of 2018 and these units have started to break ground over the past several months, thus reflected by their higher trending starts. 

Hamilton
In Hamilton CMA, overall housing starts trended up due to greater activity in both single-detached and multi-unit homes. The increase in the latter was mostly the result of a higher number of apartment starts over the past six months. A shift in homeownership demand towards lower priced homes and persistently strong rental demand have both supported the high level of apartment construction in Hamilton.      

Gatineau
In October 2019, housing starts in the Gatineau region reached their highest level in almost 50 years, reinforcing the significant growth observed since the beginning of the year. This significant gain is mainly attributable to the increase in housing starts destined for the rental market. The aging of the population and the low vacancy rate continue to stimulate rental housing starts in the Gatineau region.

Sherbrooke
Since the beginning of the year, residential construction activity has been particularly strong in the Sherbrooke CMA. From January to October 2019, housing starts recorded in the region increased by 44% over the same period last year. The increase in activity comes mainly from the rental segment, with the launch of traditional rental housing projects and residences for seniors. Overall, residential construction in the region continues to be supported by rising full-time employment, migration and an aging population.

Prince Edward Island (PEI)
PEI housing starts were 146% higher this October compared to October 2018. This is due to the ongoing surge in new apartment construction activity in response to the Island's near zero vacancy rate and affordable rental needs. So far this year, starts are 68% higher than 2018. This trend reflects primarily increased capital project spending and solid growth in population, income and employment.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 201,973 units in October, down 8.7% from 221,135 units in September. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 9.0% in October to 189,304 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 12.5% to 139,518 units in October while single-detached urban starts increased by 2.4% to 49,786 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12,669 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		October 2018	October 2019	%	October 2018	October 2019	%	October 2018	October 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		43	50	16	20	15	-25	63	65	3
P.E.I.		24	30	25	15	66	340	39	96	146
N.S.		85	137	61	81	35	-57	166	172	4
N.B.		48	65	35	144	70	-51	192	135	-30
Atlantic		200	282	41	260	186	-28	460	468	2
Qc		540	529	-2	3,517	4,113	17	4,057	4,642	14
Ont.		1,770	1,768	0	5,969	4,341	-27	7,739	6,109	-21
Man.		159	172	8	334	359	7	493	531	8
Sask.		93	102	10	399	82	-79	492	184	-63
Alta.		740	818	11	675	1,089	61	1,415	1,907	35
Prairies		992	1,092	10	1,408	1,530	9	2,400	2,622	9
B.C.		658	631	-4	1,865	2,114	13	2,523	2,745	9
Canada (10,000+)		4,160	4,302	3	13,019	12,284	-6	17,179	16,586	-3
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		23	25	9	123	169	37	146	194	33
Barrie		11	19	73	9	35	289	20	54	170
Belleville		60	44	-27	53	2	-96	113	46	-59
Brantford		15	27	80	74	11	-85	89	38	-57
Calgary		273	282	3	413	536	30	686	818	19
Edmonton		306	378	24	182	444	144	488	822	68
Greater Sudbury		17	10	-41	0	6	##	17	16	-6
Guelph		8	14	75	105	39	-63	113	53	-53
Halifax		39	94	141	51	22	-57	90	116	29
Hamilton		39	73	87	293	637	117	332	710	114
Kelowna		33	44	33	29	277	##	62	321	418
Kingston		17	27	59	25	21	-16	42	48	14
Kitchener-Cambridge Waterloo		103	84	-18	20	408	##	123	492	300
Lethbridge		25	39	56	12	12	-	37	51	38
London		89	115	29	126	128	2	215	243	13
Moncton		15	13	-13	92	26	-72	107	39	-64
Montréal		211	221	5	2,580	2,428	-6	2,791	2,649	-5
Oshawa		141	44	-69	290	37	-87	431	81	-81
Ottawa-Gatineau		309	327	6	1,187	869	-27	1,496	1,196	-20
Gatineau		27	34	26	57	496	##	84	530	##
Ottawa		282	293	4	1,130	373	-67	1,412	666	-53
Peterborough		6	27	350	27	12	-56	33	39	18
Québec		75	60	-20	303	442	46	378	502	33
Regina		26	32	23	109	25	-77	135	57	-58
Saguenay		17	20	18	38	93	145	55	113	105
St. Catharines-Niagara		113	170	50	100	114	14	213	284	33
Saint John		6	19	217	0	20	##	6	39	##
St. John's		35	43	23	19	13	-32	54	56	4
Saskatoon		60	65	8	286	51	-82	346	116	-66
Sherbrooke		33	8	-76	20	115	475	53	123	132
Thunder Bay		12	15	25	0	56	##	12	71	492
Toronto		403	404	0	3,316	2,265	-32	3,719	2,669	-28
Trois-Rivières		14	19	36	174	99	-43	188	118	-37
Vancouver		297	305	3	1,186	1,014	-15	1,483	1,319	-11
Victoria		60	64	7	168	263	57	228	327	43
Windsor		48	59	23	28	21	-25	76	80	5
Winnipeg		123	131	7	177	284	60	300	415	38
Total		3,062	3,321	8	11,615	10,994	-5	14,677	14,315	-2

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		September 2019	October 2019	%	September 2019	October 2019	%	September 2019	October 2019	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		493	504	2	377	163	-57	870	667	-23
P.E.I.		219	311	42	1,560	792	-49	1,779	1,103	-38
N.S.		1,490	1,957	31	1,921	481	-75	3,411	2,438	-29
N.B.		644	798	24	3,105	804	-74	3,749	1,602	-57
Qc		6,202	5,901	-5	28,976	42,729	47	35,178	48,630	38
Ont.		19,570	19,536	0	64,794	50,960	-21	84,364	70,496	-16
Man.		1,916	1,959	2	1,896	4,308	127	3,812	6,267	64
Sask.		793	1,104	39	2,760	984	-64	3,553	2,088	-41
Alta.		10,284	10,007	-3	21,437	12,832	-40	31,721	22,839	-28
B.C.		7,014	7,709	10	32,618	25,465	-22	39,632	33,174	-16
Canada (10,000+)		48,625	49,786	2	159,444	139,518	-12	208,069	189,304	-9
Canada (All Areas)		58,633	59,060	1	162,500	142,914	-12	221,135	201,973	-9
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		329	307	-7	1,740	2,028	17	2,069	2,335	13
Barrie		302	226	-25	660	420	-36	962	646	-33
Belleville		512	423	-17	96	24	-75	608	447	-26
Brantford		694	494	-29	336	132	-61	1,030	626	-39
Calgary		3,677	3,402	-7	14,184	6,432	-55	17,861	9,834	-45
Edmonton		4,557	4,713	3	6,204	5,328	-14	10,761	10,041	-7
Greater Sudbury		154	113	-27	0	72	##	154	185	20
Guelph		246	229	-7	1,272	468	-63	1,518	697	-54
Halifax		961	1,126	17	1,728	264	-85	2,689	1,390	-48
Hamilton		929	989	6	1,188	7,644	##	2,117	8,633	308
Kelowna		524	546	4	996	3,324	234	1,520	3,870	155
Kingston		469	502	7	4,272	252	-94	4,741	754	-84
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		891	874	-2	7,152	4,896	-32	8,043	5,770	-28
Lethbridge		331	435	31	144	144	-	475	579	22
London		1,480	1,548	5	1,896	1,536	-19	3,376	3,084	-9
Moncton		168	159	-5	2,424	312	-87	2,592	471	-82
Montréal		2,189	2,386	9	16,557	28,970	75	18,746	31,356	67
Oshawa		460	381	-17	1,128	444	-61	1,588	825	-48
Ottawa-Gatineau		3,055	3,108	2	14,340	10,428	-27	17,395	13,536	-22
Gatineau		400	356	-11	2,184	5,952	173	2,584	6,308	144
Ottawa		2,655	2,752	4	12,156	4,476	-63	14,811	7,228	-51
Peterborough		294	371	26	156	144	-8	450	515	14
Québec		786	650	-17	10,908	5,304	-51	11,694	5,954	-49
Regina		212	314	48	648	300	-54	860	614	-29
Saguenay		173	200	16	216	1,116	417	389	1,316	238
St. Catharines-Niagara		1,581	1,757	11	3,300	1,368	-59	4,881	3,125	-36
Saint John		184	249	35	612	240	-61	796	489	-39
St. John's		371	420	13	300	156	-48	671	576	-14
Saskatoon		514	709	38	1,980	612	-69	2,494	1,321	-47
Sherbrooke		538	80	-85	2,268	1,380	-39	2,806	1,460	-48
Thunder Bay		114	129	13	36	672	##	150	801	434
Toronto		3,729	5,135	38	29,028	27,180	-6	32,757	32,315	-1
Trois-Rivières		206	209	1	672	1,188	77	878	1,397	59
Vancouver		3,326	3,489	5	21,720	12,168	-44	25,046	15,657	-37
Victoria		715	724	1	5,304	3,156	-40	6,019	3,880	-36
Windsor		516	695	35	1,212	252	-79	1,728	947	-45
Winnipeg		1,680	1,683	0	1,560	3,408	118	3,240	5,091	57

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Angelina Ritacco, Media Relations, CMHC, 416-218-3320, [email protected]

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