Forecast maintained for 2025: Royal LePage expects prices to rise 7%, despite uncertain economic environment
First quarter highlights:
- In the first quarter of 2025, the weighted median price of a property in the province of Quebec increased 7.6% compared to the same period in 2024.
- All Quebec markets recorded year-over-year price gains in the first three months of the year, a trend contrary to the markets in Ontario and British Columbia.
- Quebec City remains at the forefront of aggregate price appreciation, which in the first quarter was up 17.0% over Q1 2024; the largest increase among the report's major regions nationally and provincially for the fourth consecutive quarter.
- According to a new Royal LePage survey, 65% of Quebecers say they are confident in the country's economy today, the highest proportion of any Canadian province.
- Approximately one in two (48%) Quebec homebuyers say they have put their purchase plans on hold due to the ongoing trade dispute with the United States.
MONTREAL, April 15, 2025 /CNW/ - According to the latest results of the Royal LePage® House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, Quebec's provincial real estate market has entered 2025 with remarkable strength, in stark contrast to the price declines seen elsewhere in the country. This performance is all the more remarkable given that it has been achieved in an unprecedented climate of uncertainty, fuelled by the escalation of the tariff dispute with the United States.
While we might have expected a pronounced slowdown in transactions, fuelled by hesitation on the part of both buyers and sellers, the Quebec residential real estate market showed surprising resilience in the first quarter. Despite noticeable hesitation from some buyers, this did not translate into a significant decline in sales or prices.
"In such an uncertain time, the strength of the Quebec market is a testament to the solidity of its economic foundations and the resilience of consumers. Although we saw some caution among households, demand remained strong in the first quarter, as evidenced by significant price increases in a majority of the province's markets," said Dominic St-Pierre, senior vice-president of business development, Royal LePage.
"Despite a strong start to the year, some signs of an economic slowdown are starting to appear – stock market declines, a rebound in inflation and job losses in a few sectors," he noted. "If a recession were to occur, it would, in our view, be moderate and short-lived, if recent history is any indication. The Canadian banking system is solid, and the protectionary mechanisms in place will limit the most severe effects on Canadian families. Before selling their property in response to the rising cost of living, households will first reduce other discretionary spending. Purchasing a property remains a long-term future-building project, and we believe that fundamental housing needs will continue to support the market, even in a more uncertain environment."
According to the latest data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) published in March 2025,1 the rate of mortgage arrears in the province of Quebec was 0.18% in the last quarter of 2024, below the national average of 0.21%, and well below the ten-year average. In fact, Quebec has the second-lowest rate, behind British Columbia.
In the first quarter of 2025, the weighted median2 price of a home in the province of Quebec increased 7.6% year over year to $598,300, representing a 1.7% increase on a quarterly basis. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home in the province rose 8.7% year over year to $659,600. For condominiums, the median price rose 6.3% year over year to $474,700, for a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.1%.
Across Canada, the aggregate price of a home rose a modest 2.1% year over year in the first quarter of 2025, reaching $829,400. Looking at prices in major markets across the country, the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area rose 7.9% year over year, while the Greater Toronto and Vancouver markets posted declines of 2.7% and 0.7%, respectively. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company. Provincial median prices are calculated using a weighted average of median values collected in the reported regions.
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2 The provincial weighted median prices are based on a model using sales in each region. |
Quebecers are more optimistic about the Canadian economy than their counterparts in the rest of the country
According to a new Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson,3 65% of Quebecers say they are confident in the country's economy today, the highest proportion of any Canadian province, including only 8% who say they are very confident. Conversely, 26% of Quebec respondents say they are not confident in the Canadian economy.
"Quebecers are often more optimistic about the economy compared to the rest of Canada," noted St-Pierre. "For one thing, our real estate market has historically been less subject to major fluctuations, given the relative stability of its immigration and interprovincial migration flows. Quebec is less exposed to the sudden movements that can amplify boom and bust cycles in other major provinces. This contributes to a more positive perception of the market, even in times of uncertainty."
Of those Quebecers looking to purchase a property this year, almost half (48%) have chosen to postpone their plans as a result of the ongoing trade conflict with the United States, which is in line with the national trend (49%).
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Rate cuts entice buyers
Despite economic and political uncertainty, the last two cuts to the Bank of Canada's key interest rate, in January and March, have brought back many buyers who had previously stayed away from the market. Since the start of the year, we've seen renewed buyer demand put pressure on prices given supply remains low across the province.
"The January and March rate cuts acted as a catalyst for a number of buyers who had been temporarily sidelined due to high borrowing costs. Despite the prevailing uncertainty, this further reduction seems to have been enough to reopen access to home ownership for some and rekindle interest for others, thereby helping to maintain sustained demand in the first quarter," said St-Pierre.
Forecast
Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, Royal LePage is maintaining its forecast for the province of Quebec's residential real estate market in 2025. Last December, the company anticipated a 7.0% year-over-year increase in the aggregate price of a home in the province by the fourth quarter of this year, reaching $629,588. This projection was based on the assumption that most of the activity would be concentrated in the first half of the year. Royal LePage believes that the combination of demand outstripping supply and a more favourable interest rate environment will continue to put upward pressure on prices, despite economic instability.
"The effects of the trade war with the United States will vary from region to region. However, Quebec can count on a diversified economy, which should mitigate widespread job loss, unlike other Canadian provinces. Although consumer confidence will inevitably be put to the test in 2025, we expect housing needs to support the province's residential real estate market," concluded St-Pierre.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2025-QC
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2025-QC
Consumer Confidence Survey Chart: rlp.ca/2025-consumer-confidence-survey
REGIONAL SUMMARIES
Greater Montreal Area
An exceptionally active first quarter followed by a slight moderation entering the spring
In the Greater Montreal Area, the aggregate4 price of a property began 2025 7.9% higher than the first quarter of 2024 to reach $625,000, increasing 1.9% on a quarterly basis. The median price of a single-family detached home rose 8.3% year over year to $715,700 in the first quarter of 2025, while that of a condominium increased 6.1% over the same period to $490,500.
"January and February were particularly dynamic months, which gave a remarkable boost to the market at the start of the year," said Marc Lefrançois, real estate broker, Royal LePage Tendance. "But, we have to remain cautious: this is not necessarily the picture that is emerging for the spring."
While the second quarter is usually busier because of the seasonal nature of the market, Lefrançois expects activity to moderate in the coming months. He cites prevailing economic uncertainty, the upcoming federal elections and, above all, the psychological effects of additional tariffs that could be imposed by the United States, as factors that could temporarily dampen buyer demand.
"The tariff issue weighs more heavily these days than interest rate cuts. Even before they were implemented, these measures generated a great deal of anxiety for families. However, as Greater Montreal is generally less exposed to the industrial sector, the perception of risk is mitigated, so it is quite rare for buyers to postpone their purchase plans because of a geopolitical issue," he noted.
Nonetheless, if a more pronounced economic slowdown were to occur, the luxury segment could be the most affected, particularly at a time when financial markets are struggling, Lefrançois added.
According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson, 70% of respondents in Montreal say they are confident in the country's economy today; the highest rate of any major city and well above the national average (49%). At the same time, 21% of respondents say they are not confident. Of those Montrealers looking to purchase a home this year, 64% say that the ongoing trade dispute with our neighbour to the south has prompted them to postpone their plans, while 36% say that it has not.
Despite the looming threat, demand remains strong in the city, not least because of the chronic shortage of housing supply. "As long as supply remains so limited, this pressure will continue to support prices, even in a more difficult environment," said Lefrançois.
He also reiterated the importance for both buyers and sellers to surround themselves with a competent professional in such a quickly evolving market. "There's a dark cloud hanging over our heads. In these times, a broker's intuition, their understanding of the market and ability to anticipate the situation, become essential in planning one's next move well."
Despite the growing economic uncertainty, Royal LePage is maintaining the forecast it issued last December, according to which the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area should rise 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, to reach $653,165. This forecast is based on the assumption that the majority of transactions will take place in the first half of the year, in a more favourable interest rate environment and a persistent low level of inventory.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2025-QC
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2025-QC
Consumer Confidence Survey Chart: rlp.ca/2025-consumer-confidence-survey
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Quebec City
Region's real estate market continues to lead the country in price appreciation
In Quebec City, the aggregate price of a home started the year up 17.0% compared to the first quarter of 2024, reaching $429,200 and increasing 7.1% on a quarterly basis. The median price of a single-family detached home jumped 16.9% year over year to $457,600 in the first quarter of 2025, while that of a condominium climbed 17.5% over the same period to $323,000.
According to Michèle Fournier, vice-president and real estate broker, Royal LePage Inter-Québec, the market remained very active during the quarter, particularly in the condominium segment, where the strong increase in sales is a direct result of the lack of inventory of single-family homes.
"The market has had an excellent start to 2025. We saw some fluctuations in March, but demand is still far outstripping supply, which is supporting prices in all segments," she said.
Securing financing is becoming more difficult for some buyers. "A number of banks are currently reviewing their valuation practices. In some cases, the price agreed upon at the time of the purchase offer exceeds the value estimated by the lender, creating a gap between the purchase price and the actual financing amount. This complicates certain transactions, particularly in situations of over-bidding. Institutions seem to want to curb the overvaluation seen in certain areas," explained Fournier.
Despite the uncertain economic climate at the national level, the impact of the trade war with the United States is hardly being felt in the region. "Quebec City is a city of services, made up largely of public servants. As long as there are no concrete job losses, there is no collective stress that would slow down purchasing decisions."
According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson, 66% of Quebec City respondents say they are confident in the country's economy today, including 10% who are very confident. On the other hand, 30% say they are not confident. Of the region's residents who are looking to purchase a home this year, 6% say that the ongoing trade dispute with our neighbour to the south has prompted them to postpone their purchase plans, the lowest rate of any major city. On the other hand, 94% said it had not prompted them to postpone their plans.
Fournier expects the second quarter to remain relatively buoyant, although a slight moderation is possible. "As is the case elsewhere in the province of Quebec, the second quarter could be a little less vigorous than the first, but the real effects of the economic situation will likely not be felt until June or July. That said, governments are adjusting and reorganising their priorities, which will help to cushion any economic impact."
Fournier nevertheless recommends that buyers take the time to plan ahead, especially in a constantly changing economic climate. "With the volatility of the stock markets, some buyers who rely on investments to finance their purchase could see their real borrowing capacity or down payment fluctuate. It's important to take stock of the situation with your financial advisor and real estate broker before making a decision. Good preparation allows you to make wiser and long-term choices," she points out.
Despite the current economic situation, Royal LePage is maintaining its December forecast, anticipating that the aggregate price of a home in Quebec City will increase 11.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year, to reach $444,666.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2025-QC
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2025-QC
Consumer Confidence Survey Chart: rlp.ca/2025-consumer-confidence-survey
Gatineau
Market trends vary by housing type and region
In the Gatineau area, the aggregate price of a home started the year with a moderate 4.3% increase over the first quarter of 2024 to reach $457,600, reflecting a 2.9% increase on a quarterly basis. The median price of a single-family detached home rose 8.3% year over year to $575,000 in the first quarter of 2025, while that of a condominium declined 2.0% over the same period to $322,000.
"Well-positioned properties around $450,000 continue to attract a lot of interest, and some are still seeing multiple offers," noted Karine Séguin, real estate broker, Royal LePage Vallée de l'Outaouais. "On the other hand, homes requiring work or priced above $550,000 are meeting more resistance."
The condominium market is also showing contrasts. "We're seeing a slowdown in demand for condos over $400,000, but those in the $300,000 range remain attractive. Despite everything, this segment is surprisingly stable."
The dynamics vary greatly depending on the neighbourhood. While central areas remain popular, the decline is more marked in rural areas, where average days on market are increasing.
While the seventh consecutive cut to the Bank of Canada's key interest rate in March has rekindled some interest, economic uncertainties are still very much present. Fears about employment, particularly in the federal public service, are weighing heavily on consumers.
"It's not just the federal election that worries people here, but also the economic and political instability with our neighbours to the south. Even if the labour market in the Outaouais region is not concentrated in sectors affected by the imposition of additional tariffs, there is a certain feeling of uncertainty among the population. At the same time, the federal public service, which has already undergone a reshuffle with the arrival of the new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, could be restructured in the wake of the results of the April 28th federal election."
In her view, the real effects of this uncertainty would be felt in the third quarter, when many households will be looking to reposition themselves before the start of the new school year. "The market is still buoyant, but all signs point to a more marked slowdown in the second half of the year."
According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson, 49% of respondents in the Ottawa-Gatineau region say they are confident in the country's economy today, including 7% who are very confident. On the other hand, 44% say they are not confident. Among residents of the region looking to purchase a home this year, 38% say that the ongoing trade dispute with our neighbour to the south has prompted them to postpone their purchase plans. On the other hand, 62% said that it had not prompted them to postpone their plans.
Against this backdrop, preparation is more important than ever. "Whether you're buying or selling, you need to establish a clear strategy with your broker. Mortgage pre-qualification is crucial, and as a seller, you can't neglect the details. A property is like an interview: a good first impression is essential."
Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in the Gatineau region will increase 6.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year, to $471,594.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2025-QC
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2025-QC
Consumer Confidence Survey Chart: rlp.ca/2025-consumer-confidence-survey
Sherbrooke
Strong price growth, yet buyers are more cautious
In Sherbrooke, the aggregate price of a home started 2025 7.8% higher than in the first quarter of 2024, reaching $395,500, up 5.7% on a quarterly basis. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home rose 9.7% year over year to $437,100 in the first quarter of 2025.
"Sherbrooke's real estate market entered 2025 on strong footing, with significant price increases in all segments. Despite an uncertain economic environment, buyers are still coming back and demand remains strong, especially for properties near the median price, where multiple offers are still common," explains Jean-François Bérubé, chartered real estate broker, Royal LePage Évolution EB.
However, he notes a change in buyer behaviour, fuelled by the continuing rise in home prices.
"Buyers are showing more resistance than they used to and allowing themselves to negotiate following the inspection," points out Bérubé. "This change in attitude is more common in the entry-level market, where multiple offers and over-bidding are still commonplace."
As far as trade tensions are concerned, Bérubé sees no direct impact for the time being on the local residential market.
"Buyers don't yet seem to be held back by the uncertainties associated with tariffs or protectionist measures," he noted. "That said, Sherbrooke has a number of exporting companies, particularly in the timber and pulp and paper sectors, which could be affected if the U.S. government continues down this path. If the situation in these industries deteriorates, there could be an indirect effect on the real estate market, but that's not the case at the moment."
According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson, 63% of Sherbrooke residents say they are confident in the country's economy today, including 6% who say they are very confident. At the same time, 27% say they are not confident in the Canadian economy. Among Sherbrooke residents looking to purchase a home this year, 25% say that the ongoing trade dispute with our neighbour to the south has led them to postpone their home-buying plans, while 75% have chosen to maintain their plans despite the situation.
Royal LePage now forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in the Sherbrooke region will increase 9.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year, to reach $409,859. This forecast has been revised upwards to reflect the sustained activity seen in the first quarter of the year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2025-QC
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2025-QC
Consumer Confidence Survey Chart: rlp.ca/2025-consumer-confidence-survey
Trois-Rivières
Residential market continues to gain momentum, boosted by the effect of cumulative rate cuts
In the Trois-Rivières region, the aggregate price of a home started off 2025 11.9% higher than in the first quarter of 2024, reaching $379,600, an increase of 4.6% on a quarterly basis. The median price of a single-family detached home rose 17.8% year over year to $432,700 in the first quarter of 2025.
Momentum in the Trois-Rivières real estate market was maintained in the first quarter of 2025, buoyed by a gradually easing interest rate environment.
"It took several rate cuts before we felt a real click, but the January and March cuts clearly had a knock-on effect on sales. The market reacted, and quickly," said Martin Leblanc, real estate broker, Royal LePage Centre. "Despite a climate of uncertainty marked by upcoming elections and tariff threats, the market remains resilient. For a long time there was a sense of certainty in the market, but the last few years have taught us to react to the winds of change."
According to a recent Royal LePage survey, conducted by Burson, 66% of Trois-Rivières residents say they are confident in the country's economy today, including 7% who say they are very confident. At the same time, 25% say they are not confident in the Canadian economy. Among Trois-Rivières residents looking to purchase a home this year, 72% say that the ongoing trade dispute with our neighbour to the south has led them to postpone their home-buying plans, while 28% have chosen to maintain their plans despite the situation.
Royal LePage now forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in the Trois-Rivières region will increase 9.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to the same quarter last year, to reach $395,561. This forecast has been revised upwards to reflect the sustained activity seen in the first quarter of the year.
Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2025-QC
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2025-QC
Consumer Confidence Survey Chart: rlp.ca/2025-consumer-confidence-survey
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About the Royal LePage House Price Survey
The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 64 of the nation's largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from partner company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Additionally, commentary on housing market trends and data on price and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.
About the Burson Survey
Burson used the Leger Opinion online panel to survey 2,417 Canadians, aged 18+. A robust oversample was collected in 10 major cities across Canada (Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Winnipeg, Regina, Calgary, Halifax, Ottawa, Edmonton and Quebec City) as well as in towns potentially impacted by tariffs (Saint John, Trois-Rivières, Sherbrooke, Fort McMurray, Abbotsford, Windsor, Oshawa, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo and Thunder Bay). The survey was completed between April 2 and April 9, 2025. Weighting was applied to age and gender within regions and cities, based on 2021 census figures. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (i.e., a web panel in this case). For comparative purposes, a probability sample of 2,417 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2%, 19 times out of 20.
About Royal LePage
Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country's leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women's shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbolTSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.
Royal LePage® is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada and is used under licence by Bridgemarq Real Estate Services®.
SOURCE Royal LePage Real Estate Services
For further information, please contact: Dominic Blais, Burson on behalf of Royal LePage, [email protected], 438-988-6382
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