Quebec's export recovery will lead to overall positive economic performance for 2015

Quebec to enjoy growth equivalent to the early 2000s

OTTAWA, May 28, 2015 /CNW/ - Quebec's economic outlook is generally positive, as economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.2 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent in 2016, according to The Conference Board of Canada's Provincial Outlook: Spring 2015.

"This projected growth marks a significant change for Quebec, which, for the last few years, has been able to generate only modest economic growth," said Marie-Christine Bernard, Associate Director, Provincial Forecast. "Stronger exports will combine with household consumption expenditures to lead the province forward."

HIGHLIGHTS

• Real GDP growth is expected to reach 2.2 per cent in 2015 and 2.6 per cent in 2016—a positive change from the modest 1.3 per cent annual average growth over 2012–14.
• The lower Canadian dollar and a stronger U.S. economy will push Quebec's exports of goods and services to a new high in 2015 and bolster the manufacturing industry.
• In spite of the ongoing export recovery, businesses are reluctant to invest.

The weak link in the economy will be private investment. As indicated by The Conference Board of Canada's most recent business confidence index, the growing pessimism among firms is hurting investment intentions. Housing starts will also plunge this year, leading to only lacklustre growth for the construction industry.

With governments tightening their fiscal belts, the public sector's contribution to the economy will be limited. The provincial government remains committed to balancing its books in 2015–16 by holding overall program spending growth to just 1.2 per cent.

In Western Canada, the economic forecast is influenced by weaker oil prices. Following a modest contraction this year, Alberta's economy will see modest growth in 2016, and a similar story is unfolding in neighbouring Saskatchewan. British Columbia and Manitoba, however, are expected to be growth leaders over the next two years. British Columbia will hold the top spot this year, with growth of 3.1 per cent. Manitoba is expected to post real GDP growth of 2.8 per cent in 2015 and again in 2016, when it will lead all provinces.

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SOURCE Conference Board of Canada

Image with caption: "2015 economic growth by province (CNW Group/Conference Board of Canada)". Image available at: http://photos.newswire.ca/images/download/20150528_C4901_PHOTO_EN_17126.jpg

Yvonne Squires, Media Relations, The Conference Board of Canada, Tel.: [phone] ext. 221, E-mail: [email protected]; or Juline Ranger, Associate Director of Communications, The Conference Board of Canada, Tel.: [phone] ext. 431, E-mail: [email protected]